R$ Million - Bradesco RI

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK:
GOOD PROSPECTS FOR THE
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY EVEN
AGAINST A CHALLENGING
GLOBAL BACKDROP.
Robson Rodrigues Pereira
Senior Economist
Bradesco Macroeconomic Research Department - DEPEC
5
mar/99
jun/99
set/99
dez/99
mar/00
jun/00
set/00
dez/00
mar/01
jun/01
set/01
dez/01
mar/02
jun/02
set/02
dez/02
mar/03
jun/03
set/03
dez/03
mar/04
jun/04
set/04
dez/04
mar/05
jun/05
set/05
dez/05
mar/06
jun/06
set/06
dez/06
mar/07
jun/07
set/07
dez/07
mar/08
jun/08
set/08
dez/08
mar/09
jun/09
set/09
dez/09
mar/10
jun/10
set/10
dez/10
mar/11
jun/11
set/11
dez/11
mar/12
PMI GLOBAL DEPEC-BRADESCO
DO SETOR MANUFATUREIRO
DEPEC-BRADESCOÍNDICE
GLOBAL
PMI INDEX
OF
FONTE: BLOOMBERG, ECOWIN E CEIC
THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
58
42
6
57.6
56.6
55.2
54
53.9
51.7
50.5
50
46
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
54.4
56.2
52.9
53.2
52.8
47.6
57.0
53.9
53.0
54.0
52.1
51.0
51.5
50.0
47.7
47.4
43.5
38
36.4
34
GROWTH RATE OF WORLD GDP
TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO PIB DO MUNDO (SOMA DOS PIBs OBTIDA PELA PARIDADE DO PODER DE
COMPRA) 1993 - 2012. Fonte: FMI/WEO. Elaboração: Bradesco
6,0
5,2
5,0
5,4
5,0
4,9
4,8
4,6
4,3
4,0
3,8
3,4
3.5
3,5
3,8
3,6
3,3
3,3
2,9
3,0
2,9
2,6
2,3
2,1
2,0
1,0
0,0
2012*
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
2011*
SOURCE: IMF/WEO
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
7
2009
-0,5
-1,0
MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF THE GLOBAL
OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

International outlook is deflationary for Brazil (lower world growth
and lack of pressure on commodity prices, with some exceptions, as
a result of problems with supply);

Move towards currency appreciation (plentiful liquidity and growth
differential favor Brazil) despite the worsening in the terms of trade;

Lower trade balance, due to:
1) World economic slowdown; and
2) High manufacturing idleness in the main economies
(increasing competition on the domestic market and preventing a
faster response from industry);

8
Impact on
investments.
business
expectations,
postponing
productive
Índice de termos de troca (1996 = 100). Preço das exportações / preço das importações. Fonte:
Termos de Troca
Funcex. 1999-2007
TERMS OF TRADE INDEX (RATIO BETWEEN
EXPORT AND IMPORT PRICES)
130
129.0
1996 = 100
125.6
125
123.2
120
117.8
118.6
115
108.4
110
105
100
101.8
95.1
99.2
96.0
95
90
102.7
98.1
96.0
110.0
96.8
94.4
90.7
86.9
88.0
fev-00
mai-00
ago-00
nov-00
fev-01
mai-01
ago-01
nov-01
fev-02
mai-02
ago-02
nov-02
fev-03
mai-03
ago-03
nov-03
fev-04
mai-04
ago-04
nov-04
fev-05
mai-05
ago-05
nov-05
fev-06
mai-06
ago-06
nov-06
fev-07
mai-07
ago-07
nov-07
fev-08
mai-08
ago-08
nov-08
fev-09
mai-09
ago-09
nov-09
fev-10
mai-10
ago-10
nov-10
fev-11
mai-11
ago-11
nov-11
fev-12
85
93.6
9
SOURCE: FUNCEX
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
07/07/08
04/08/08
01/09/08
29/09/08
27/10/08
24/11/08
22/12/08
19/01/09
16/02/09
16/03/09
13/04/09
11/05/09
08/06/09
06/07/09
03/08/09
31/08/09
28/09/09
26/10/09
23/11/09
21/12/09
18/01/10
15/02/10
15/03/10
12/04/10
10/05/10
07/06/10
05/07/10
02/08/10
30/08/10
27/09/10
25/10/10
22/11/10
20/12/10
17/01/11
14/02/11
14/03/11
11/04/11
09/05/11
06/06/11
04/07/11
01/08/11
29/08/11
26/09/11
24/10/11
21/11/11
19/12/11
16/01/12
13/02/12
12/03/12
09/04/12
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$
R$/ US$
2,600
2,504
2,400
2,315
2,231
2,200
1,600
1,562
10
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
DECEMBER 2007
R$ 1,77 / US$
DECEMBER 2008
R$ 2,34 / US$
DECEMBER 2009
R$ 1,74 / US$
1,886
DECEMBER 2010
R$ 1,67 / US$
DECEMBER 2011
R$ 1,88 / US$
DECEMBER 2012
R$ 1,75 / US$
2,000
1,996
1,860
1,906
1,701
1,653
1,589
1,898
1,800
1,828
1,677
1,693
1,695
1,569
1,400
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
US$ Billion
11.679
13.000
13.985 13.643
4.177
1.551
4.000
-5.000 -1.811
-7.637
-14.000
-18.384
-23.502
-23.000
-32.000
-25.335
-30.452
-33.416
-41.000
-24.225-23.215
-24.302
-28.192
-50.000
-47.365
-2,3%
-52.612
-59.000
PIB
-2,1%
PIB
-68.000
-63.112
-2,5%
PIB
-77.000
-86.000
11
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATE : BRADESCO
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-95.000
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
US$ MILLION
72,000
66,660
63,000
55,000
54,000
48,438
45,058
45,000
36,000
34,585
32,779
28,856 28,578
25,949
27,000
22,457
10.144
18,146
16,590
18,000
15,066
10,144
9,000
12
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATE: BRADESCO
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
AVERAGE GROWTH OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
Crescimento médio do CONSUMO das famílias por períodos em % - Fonte: IBGE
AND GDP
OVER CERTAIN PERIODS
5,00
Average growth GDP
4,48
4,50
Household consumption
4,09
4,06
4,00
3,60
3,50
3,16
3,00
2,73
2,65
2,50
2,31
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
FHC (1995-2002)
13
SOURCE: IBGE
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
Lula (2003 - 2010)
Dilma (2011)
17 years (1995 - 2010)
AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN BRAZIL´S 6
MAIN METROPOLITAN
REGIONS
(*) -REGIÕES
%
TAXA MÉDIA DE DESEMPREGO APURADA
PELA PME NAS 6 PRINCIPAIS
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração Bradesco
METROPOLITANAS DO PAÍS - %
12.3
12.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
10.5
9.9
10.0
9.3
9.5
8.5
7.9
8.1
7.5
6.7
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.5
4.5
2002
14
2003
2004
SOURCE: IBGE (PME)
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
(*) São Paulo, Rio, BH, Porto Alegre, Recife and Salvador
2010
2011
2012
NET GENERATION OF FORMAL EMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED
FIGURES
3-MONTH
Geração líquida de emprego formal
dessazonalizada - –
Média
Móvel 3 meses
Fonte: Caged
Elaboração: Bradesco
MOVING AVERAGE
Média do Caged em
períodos de redução da
taxa de juros (80 mil)
Média do Caged em
INDIVIDUAL JOBS
250.000
213.631
204.686
199.911
200.000
180.813
169.190
149.153
150.000
150.417
157.692
131.814
151.060
124.767
100.000
74.792
98.778
71.463
91.239
79.119
50.000
40.040
39.379
22.456
0
-50.000
fev/12
out/11
jun/11
fev/11
out/10
jun/10
fev/10
out/09
jun/09
fev/09
jun/08
fev/08
out/07
jun/07
fev/07
out/06
jun/06
fev/06
out/05
jun/05
fev/05
out/04
jun/04
fev/04
out/03
jun/03
fev/03
out/02
jun/02
fev/02
out/01
jun/01
fev/01
15
Source: MTE-Caged
Production: Bradesco
out/08
-82.687
-100.000
acumulado
no ano - 1996 - 2009
NET GENERATIONSaldoOF
FORMAL
EMPLOYMENT
Em postos de trabalho
´000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS
2.500
2.137
2.000
1.704
1.617
1.523
1.566
1.452
1.500
1.565
1.254 1.229
995
1.000
658
762
645
591
500
0
-36
-500
-196
-271
-582
-1.000
1996
16
1997
1998
1999
SOURCE: MTE
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012* 2013*
AVERAGE ANNUAL VARIATION OF SALARY
INCREASES BETWEEN 2007 AND 2011
Construction
28,1%
Extraction industry
23,3%
Domestic services
22,7%
Other activities
15,3%
Public administration, defense, social security,
education, health and social services
12,5%
Other services
12,2%
Retail, repair of autos, personal and domestic
appliances, and retail fuel sales
11,4%
Manufacturing industry
9,9%
Financial intermediation and real estate activities,
rents and services provided to companies
6,5%
Production and distribution of electricity,
gas and water
0,0%
SOURCE: PME/IBGE
17 PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
3,3%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
NOMINAL GROWTH OF TOTAL BANK CREDIT
NOMINAL EM 12 MESES DO ESTOQUE TOTAL DE CRÉDITO 2004 - 2017
STOCKCRESCIMENTO
IN BRAZIL
Fonte: Bacen e (*)
35.0%
31.1%
30.0%
27.8%
25.0%
21.7%
20.0%
20.7%
20.6%
19.2%
19.0%
15.8%
15.2%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2004
18
2005
2006
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
dez/01
fev/02
abr/02
jun/02
ago/02
out/02
dez/02
fev/03
abr/03
jun/03
ago/03
out/03
dez/03
fev/04
abr/04
jun/04
ago/04
out/04
dez/04
fev/05
abr/05
jun/05
ago/05
out/05
dez/05
fev/06
abr/06
jun/06
ago/06
out/06
dez/06
fev/07
abr/07
jun/07
ago/07
out/07
dez/07
fev/08
abr/08
jun/08
ago/08
out/08
dez/08
fev/09
abr/09
jun/09
ago/09
out/09
dez/09
fev/10
abr/10
jun/10
ago/10
out/10
dez/10
fev/11
abr/11
jun/11
ago/11
out/11
dez/11
fev/12
DEFAULT BY INDIVIDUALS (SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED) – FIGURES
FROM THE NATIONAL
Inadimplência pf - dessaz
FINANCIAL SYSTEM - SFN
8,6
8,4
19
Over 90 days
7,8
7,3
7,0
7,1
6,8
6,2
6,4
5,4
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
6,4
6,50
Fonte: BC
15 to 90 days
8,5
7,9
7,7
7,4
7,7
7,1
7,0
6,8
6,5
6,4
5,9
5,7
5,57
4,6
DEVELOPMENT OF HOUSEHOLD INDEBTNESS
Evolução do endividamento e do comprometimento de renda das famílias
AND INCOME COMMITMENT
IN %
45,0
Indebtedness
42,7
Commitment
40,0
39,2
35,0
32,9
32,2
30,0
24,9
25,0
22,4
22,2
19,6
20,0
18,3
18,3
19,9
18,9
15,0
20
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
jan/12
nov/11
set/11
jul/11
mai/11
mar/11
jan/11
nov/10
set/10
jul/10
mai/10
mar/10
jan/10
nov/09
set/09
jul/09
mai/09
mar/09
jan/09
nov/08
set/08
jul/08
mai/08
mar/08
jan/08
nov/07
set/07
jul/07
mai/07
mar/07
jan/07
nov/06
set/06
jul/06
mai/06
mar/06
jan/06
nov/05
set/05
jul/05
10,0
DEVELOPMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DEFAULT AND AVERAGE
EVOLUÇÃO
DA INADIMPLÊNCIA
DE PESSOA
FÍSICA ACIMA DE 90 OF
DIAS ETHE
DO CRESCIMENTO
MÉDIO DEOF
12
GROWTH
OVER
12 MONTHS
NUMBER
MESES DOS EMPREGADOS FORMAIS DESLIGADOS INVOLUNTARIAMENTE
INVOLUNTARY FORMAL JOB LOSSES
Periods of high default rates
9,00
20,0%
Default rates
8,50
Job losses
8,00
7,90
16,7%
8,50
15,0%
14,1%
7,70
7,70
10,4%
7,50
7,60
10,0%
8,2%
7,00
6,80
6,7%
4,6%
6,00
5,0%
5,1%
6,50
2,2%
1,3%
0,0%
5,87
0,1%
5,70
5,50
-1,8%
21
Source: MTE-Caged and Brazilian Central Bank
Production : Bradesco
fev/12
nov/11
ago/11
mai/11
fev/11
nov/10
ago/10
mai/10
fev/10
nov/09
ago/09
mai/09
fev/09
nov/08
ago/08
mai/08
fev/08
nov/07
ago/07
mai/07
fev/07
nov/06
ago/06
mai/06
fev/06
nov/05
ago/05
mai/05
fev/05
nov/04
ago/04
mai/04
fev/04
nov/03
ago/03
mai/03
-5,0%
fev/03
5,00
INDIVIDUAL DEFAULT IN THE NATIONAL
Inadimplência Pessoa
Fisíca - Acima
de 90 dias RESOURCES) –
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
- SFN
(FREE
OVER 90 DAYS
Fonte: Bacen e (*) projeções:
Bradesco
8,5%
7,90%
8,0%
7,70%
7,60%
7,40%
7,5%
7,00%
7,0%
6,80%
6,74%
6,5%
6,0%
5,70%
5,5%
22
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
5,0%
CORPORATE DEFAULT
IN THE NATIONAL FINANCIAL
Inadimplência Pessoa Jurídica - Acima de 90 dias
SYSTEM - SFN (FREE RESOURCES) – OVER 90 DAYS
Fonte: Bacen e (*) projeções:
Bradesco
4,0%
3,9%
3,8%
3,5%
3,5%
3,3%
2,7%
2,6%
2,0%
2,0%
1,9%
1,8%
23
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
1,2%
LIKELIHOOD OF EMPLOYED PERSON IN OCT/04 AND
OCT/10 LOSING JOB 1 YEAR AHEAD BY LEVEL OF
SCHOOLING
7.0%
out/04
5.80%
6.0%
out/10
5.0%
4.60%
4.20%
4.0%
3.3%
3.5%
3.0%
2.2%
2.0%
1.47%
1.3%
1.0%
0.0%
sem instrução e
ensino fundamental
incompleto
SOURCE: PME/IBGE
24 PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
ensino fundamental
completo e ensino
médio incompleto
ensino médio
completo e superior
incompleto
superior completo
VOLUME DE VENDAS NO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA AMPLIADO E
PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - MÉDIA MÓVEL TRIMESTRAL DAS
SÉRIES DESSAZONALIZADAS
AMPLIFIED RETAIL SALES AND INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION VOLUME – THREE-MONTH AVERAGE OF
SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED SERIES
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração: Bradesco
Janeiro 2003 = 100
January 2003 = 100
205
Retail sales
200,5
195,2
195
Industrial production
203,9
198,0
183,8
185
182,2
173,6
175
161,4
165
155
170,6
149,9
149,2
145
131,0
135
131,9
130,7
126,2
125
116,7
121,4
122,8
118,0
132,2
130,4
127,9
115
105111,6
112,9
108,2
jan/05
mar/05
mai/05
jul/05
set/05
nov/05
jan/06
mar/06
mai/06
jul/06
set/06
nov/06
jan/07
mar/07
mai/07
jul/07
set/07
nov/07
jan/08
mar/08
mai/08
jul/08
set/08
nov/08
jan/09
mar/09
mai/09
jul/09
set/09
nov/09
jan/10
mar/10
mai/10
jul/10
set/10
nov/10
jan/11
mar/11
mai/11
jul/11
set/11
nov/11
jan/12
95
25
SOURCE: IBGE
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
EXPORT AND
IMPORT COEFFICIENT OF
COEFICIENTES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO DA INDÚSTRIA BRASILEIRA (*)
BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY
Fonte: FIESP
Elaboração: Bradesco
25,0%
Coefficient of exports = Exports/Production
Coefficient of imports = Imports/(Production – Exports + Imports)
24,0%
23,0%
24,0%
22,7%
22,3%
23,4%
22,0%
21,0%
20,8%
20,9%
21,6%
20,5%
20,2%
19,9%
20,0%
19,4%
19,0%
19,2%
19,8%
18,7%
17,8%
18,0%
18,5%
17,5%
16,9%
17,0%
17,1%
17,1%
16,9%
16,0%15,5%
Exports
15,0%
Import
15,1%
26
SOURCE: FIESP
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
2011q04
2011q03
2011q02
2011q01
2010q04
2010q03
2010q02
2010q01
2009q04
2009q03
2009q02
2009q01
2008q04
2008q03
2008q02
2008q01
2007q04
2007q03
2007q02
2007q01
2006q04
2006q03
2006q02
2006q01
14,0%
nov/05
dez/05
jan/06
fev/06
mar/06
abr/06
mai/06
jun/06
jul/06
ago/06
set/06
out/06
nov/06
dez/06
jan/07
fev/07
mar/07
abr/07
mai/07
jun/07
jul/07
ago/07
set/07
out/07
nov/07
dez/07
jan/08
fev/08
mar/08
abr/08
mai/08
jun/08
jul/08
ago/08
set/08
out/08
nov/08
dez/08
jan/09
fev/09
mar/09
abr/09
mai/09
jun/09
jul/09
ago/09
set/09
out/09
nov/09
dez/09
jan/10
fev/10
mar/10
abr/10
mai/10
jun/10
jul/10
ago/10
set/10
out/10
nov/10
dez/10
jan/11
fev/11
mar/11
abr/11
mai/11
jun/11
jul/11
ago/11
set/11
out/11
nov/11
dez/11
jan/12
fev/12
mar/12
A previsão
para a margemMARGIN
de lucro de sua empresa
INDICATOR OF THE
PROFIT
OF INDUSTRY
(NUMBERS ABOVE 50 POINT TO GROWTH AT THE MARGIN
IN THE MONTH AND BELOW THIS LEVEL TO REDUCTION)
M argem D essazonali zada
53,0
52,0
50,0
49,0
27
51,8
52,5
51,4
51,0
51,6
51,4
50,0
46,0
44,0
SOURCE AND PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
50,7
50,9
50,3
49,8
49,6
48,0
51,0
51,0
50,6
49,5
49,2
48,4
48,29
47,0
46,8
45,7
45,0
44,6
43,0
PERCENTAGE
OFATUAL
INDUSTRIAL
COMPANIES
WHICH
COMO EXCESSIVO (DADOS COM AJUSTE
SAZONAL)
Elaboração: Bradesco
REGARD THEIR CURRENT INVENTORIES AS EXCESSIVE
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FIGURES)
PERCENTUAL DE EMPRESAS INDUSTRIAIS QUE CONSIDERAMO ESTOQUE
Fonte: FGV
21,30
22,0
17,30
17,0
13,30
12,0
11,60
10,20
9,70
8,30
8,30
9,10
7,50
7,30
7,0
6,50
7,20
10,20
6,30
5,30
5,30
5,20
4,40
4,20
4,20
4,40
mar/12
jan/12
nov/11
set/11
jul/11
mai/11
mar/11
jan/11
nov/10
set/10
jul/10
mai/10
jan/10
nov/09
set/09
jul/09
mai/09
mar/09
jan/09
nov/08
set/08
jul/08
mai/08
mar/08
jan/08
nov/07
set/07
jul/07
mai/07
mar/07
jan/07
set/06
jul/06
mai/06
mar/06
nov/06
SOURCE: FGV
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
mar/10
3,10
2,0
28
4,20
GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração e (p) projeção: Bradesco
PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO PERCENTUAL ANUAL 2001 - 2012
10,5%
11,0%
8,3%
6,0%
6,0%
3,1%
2,7%
3,1%
2,8%
2,0%
1,6%
1,0%
0,3%
0,1%
-4,0%
-7,4%
29
SOURCE: IBGE/PIM
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-9,0%
Crescimento anual do PIB brasileiro
Fonte: IBGE e IPEA
GDP
GROWTH
8.00
7.5
7.00
6.1
6.00
5.2
5.00
4.7
4.3
4.0
4.00
3.00
2.00
3.7
3.6
2.7
2.5
1.7
1.00
0.00
-0.3
30
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2011-2020
2001-2010
1991-2000
1981-1990
-1.00
DEVELOPMENT OF IPCA INDEX OVER 12 MONTHS
8.5%
8.07%
7.60%
7.5%
7.23%
7.18%
6.87%
6.36%
6.5%
6.41%
6.50%
5.90%
6.06%
6.02%
5.70%
5.29%
5.22%
5.5%
5.21%
4.73%
4.5%
4.18%
4.03%
5.40%
4.84%
4.17%
3.5%
SOURCE:
FONTE:IBGE
IBGE
PRODUCTION
AND BRADESCO
ESTIMATES : BRADESCO
ELABORAÇÃO:
dez/12
set/12
jun/12
mar/12
dez/11
set/11
jun/11
mar/11
dez/10
set/10
jun/10
mar/10
dez/09
set/09
jun/09
mar/09
dez/08
set/08
jun/08
mar/08
dez/07
set/07
jun/07
mar/07
set/06
jun/06
mar/06
dez/05
set/05
jun/05
mar/05
dez/04
set/04
jun/04
31
dez/06
2.96%
2.5%
jan-08
fev-08
mar-08
abr-08
mai-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
set-08
out-08
nov-08
dez-08
jan-09
fev-09
mar-09
abr-09
mai-09
jun-09
jul-09
ago-09
set-09
out-09
nov-09
dez-09
jan-10
fev-10
mar-10
abr-10
mai-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
set-10
out-10
nov-10
dez-10
jan-11
fev-11
mar-11
abr-11
mai-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
set-11
out-11
nov-11
dez-11
jan-12
fev-12
mar-12
abr-12
mai-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
set-12
out-12
nov-12
dez-12
jan-13
fev-13
mar-13
abr-13
mai-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
set-13
out-13
nov-13
dez-13
Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic
NOMINAL INTEREST RATES (SELIC)
15.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
9.00%
32
13.75%
13.00%
13.00%
12.75%
12.00%
11.25%
12.50%
11.75%
11.25%
11.25%
11.00%
10.75%
10.25%
9.50%
11.50%
10.50%
10.25%
9.75%
8.75% 8.75%
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK, BRADESCO
9.00%
9.75%
9.50%
9.25%
10.00%
8.00%
7.00%
FONTE: BACEN
PROJEÇÕES: BRADESCO
NET DEBT/GDP RATIO (END OF PERIOD)
%GDP
65.0
60.4
60.0
54.8
55.0
52.0
50.6
50.0
48.4
47.3
45.5
45.0
42.1
36.4
36.5
2012*
39.1
38.5
2011
40.0
35.0
33
SOURCE: BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK
PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATES : BRADESCO
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
30.0
FAVORABLE LONGTERM OUTLOOK
REMAINS.
34
Bonus demográfico (65 anos ou mais + 0 a 14 anos)/(0-65) e Razão de dependência (65 anos ou
mais + 0 a 14 anos)/(15-65 anos)
CRIANÇAS
DEMOGRAPHIC
BONUS IN BRAZIL
Fonte: IBGE
IDOSOS
45,0%
%%Children
Crianças
40,0% 38,2%
35,7%
35,0%
30,9%
30,0%
25,6%
25,0%
BEGINNING
INÍCIO BÔNUSOF
DEMOGRAPHIC
DEMOGRÁFICO:
BONUS:
1999 1999
20,0%
22,7%
20,1%
17,0%
17,5%
15,0%
13,1%
% Older
% Idosos
people
12,0%
SOURCE: IBGE
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1990
1988
1986
1984
4,0%
1982
1980
35
4,5%
1992
4,0%
TERMINA BÔNUS
DEMOGRAPHIC
DEMOGRÁFICO
BONUS:
20342034
2030
5,7%
0,0%
END OF
7,8%
2028
5,0%
2016
10,0%
DEVELOPMENT
OF THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE FROM THE
Em milhões
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração:
A,
B Bradesco
AND C INCOME CLASSES IN THE BRAZILIAN
POPULATION –12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
121,102,291
121,000,000
117,933,943
115,000,000
111,965,788
109,000,000
106,272,871
103,000,000
97,148,698
97,000,000
88,213,993
91,000,000
100,073,160
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
(Amounts from February 2012)
85,000,000
79,000,000
77,276,507
82,938,042
74,336,800
A CLASS
R$ 7,715 OR MORE
B CLASS
FROM R$ 5,104 TO R$ 7,715
C CLASS
FROM R$ 1,276 TO R$ 5,104
D CLASS
FROM R$ 771 TO R$ 1,276
E CLASS
UP TO R$ 771
fev/04
abr/04
jun/04
ago/04
out/04
dez/04
fev/05
abr/05
jun/05
ago/05
out/05
dez/05
fev/06
abr/06
jun/06
ago/06
out/06
dez/06
fev/07
abr/07
jun/07
ago/07
out/07
dez/07
fev/08
abr/08
jun/08
ago/08
out/08
dez/08
fev/09
abr/09
jun/09
ago/09
out/09
dez/09
fev/10
abr/10
jun/10
ago/10
out/10
dez/10
fev/11
abr/11
jun/11
ago/11
out/11
dez/11
fev/12
73,000,000
36
SOURCE: PME AND PNAD/IBGE
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
INVESTMENT PLANS IN BRAZIL
Fonte: BNDES
Elaboração:
Planos de investimento no Brasil - 2011 - 2014
R$ billion
2.000
1.900,9
TOTAL
R$ 3.348 TRILLION
BRAZIL GDP 2011: R$
4.15 TRILLION
1.500
1.000
1.046,7
500
400,7
0
Other sectors
SOURCE: BNDES
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
37
Industry
Infrastructure
FONTE: Imprensa
Número de empresas que divulgaram investimentos - 2007 a 2011
NUMBER OF INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS –
ACCUMULATED OVER 12 MONTHS
NUMBER OF COMPANIES
1,650
1,642
1,639 1,618
1,544
1,425
1,250
1,561
1,494
1,151
1,102
974
850
924
940
806
691
626
646
578
mar/12
jan/12
nov/11
set/11
jul/11
mai/11
mar/11
jan/11
nov/10
set/10
jul/10
mai/10
mar/10
jan/10
nov/09
jul/09
mai/09
mar/09
jan/09
nov/08
set/08
jul/08
mai/08
mar/08
jan/08
nov/07
set/07
jul/07
mai/07
mar/07
SOURCE: PRESS
38 PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
set/09
534
450
INVESTMENT RATE IN BRAZIL (GROSS FORMATION OF
FIXED CAPITAL AS A PROPORTION OF GDP AT
FONTE: IBGE
FORMAÇÃO BRUTA DE CAPITAL FIXO COMO PROPORÇÃO DO PIB (VALORES CORRENTES)
CURRENT
PRICES)
ELABORAÇÃO:
%
26.00
25.09
24.64
24.20
23.78
24.00
23.37
22.49
22.00
21.63
20.80
20.01
20.00
19.48 19.30
19.13
18.09
18.00
17.46
17.40
16.99
16.91
16.87
17.07
16.45
16.40
16.10 15.95
15.69
16.00
15.31
39
SOURCE: IBGE
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
14.00
BRAZIL: FORMAL EDUCATION IN YEARS OF THE
POPULATION AGED OVER 25
7,6
7,4
7,4
7,2
7,2
7,1
7,0
6,9
6,8
6,7
6,6
6,5
6,4
6,4
6,3
40
SOURCE: IBGE
PRODUCTION : BRADESCO
2010*
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
6,2
DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
(2008-2020)
5,2
5,9
9,8
13,75%
3,1%
7,9
1,83
2,34
197,9
173,0
24,9
-28,2
-1,7%
206,8
45,1
365,1
97,7
2,1
38,5
31,1
-0,3
4,3
-1,7
8,75%
-7,4%
8,1
2,00
1,74
153,0
127,6
25,4
-24,3
-1,6%
239,1
25,9
246,0
61,9
3,4
42,1
15,2
7,5
5,9
11,3
10,75%
10,5%
6,7
1,76
1,67
201,9
181,7
20,2
-47,4
-2,3%
288,6
48,5
279,5
79,6
2,5
39,1
20,6
2,7
6,5
5,1
11,00%
0,3%
6,0
1,67
1,88
256,0
226,2
29,8
-52,6
-2,1%
352,0
66,7
334,1
111,1
2,6
36,4
19,0
3,7
5,4
4,6
9,00%
2,0%
5,5
1,75
1,65
268,8
247,4
21,5
-63,1
-2,5%
384,8
55,0
320,5
117,7
1,9
36,5
15,8
2013-2020
(average)
4,6
4,6
4,5
8,4%
3,6%
4,7
1,97
1,99
398,7
362,2
36,4
-98,8
-2,6%
490,3
73,5
n/a
n/a
1,1
29,1
11,2
8,0%
1,8%
7,7%
3,8%
5,7%
3,5%
7,3%
3,9%
6,8%
3,5%
5,8%
2,3%
2008
GDP%
CPI (IPCA) %
WPI (IGP-M) %
Nominal rates (Selic)
Industrial Production %
Unemployment rate %
BRL (R/US$) average
BRL (R/US$) eop
Exports (US$ Bn)
Imports (US$ Bn)
Trade balance (US$ Bn)
Current account (US$ Bn)
Current account % of GDP
International Reserves (US$ Bn)
FDI (US$ Bn)
CRB (Average)
Crude Oil (Brent US$/b) - Average
Fiscal deficit % of GDP
Net Public debt % of GDP
Credit outstanding %YoY
Non-performing loans
Individuals
Companies
41
2009
2010
2011
2012
Praça Panamericana branch
Presence in All Brazilian Municipalities
A
B
C
D
E
03
Organic Growth of the Distribution Channels
4,634
3,160
3,359
2007
2008
3,454
3,628
2009
2010
2011
47,827(*)
44,318
34,839
26,104
37,421
20,200
32,412
16,061
11,539
2007
26,084
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007
Source: Financial Statements. (1) Includes Branches (in the country and overseas), and ATMs.
(*) This figure does not include Banco Posta .
04
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mobility and Other Service Channels
1,296
1,549
2,983
2,399
1,846
99.1
3.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4,480
32.5
4.2 5.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4,429
46,971
43,072
4,112
3,738
37,957
34,524
2,776
2007
29,913
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007
Source: Financial Statements (1) in million - (2) Include shared network.
05
05
2008
2009
2010
2011
Distribution Network in Brazil
1,009 New Branches in 2011
Northeast
North
28.4%
26.0%
21.7%
21.4%
Midwest
Southeast
19.1%
South
65.1 Million Customers
Total service points: 47,827 (1)
(1) Includes
Market Share (Branches) %
06
Branches (in the country and overseas), and ATMs.
Client Segmentation
Companies
Individuals
Minimum investment of R$3 million.
Annual revenue over
R$250 million.
Monthly income starting at
R$7,000 or Investment
starting at R$80,000.
Annual revenue from
R$30 million
to R$250 million.
Monthly income from
R$3,000 to R$6,999.99 or
Investments starting
at R$30,000.
Exclusive
Small Business
Monthly income
Individuals
up to R$2,999.99.
Bradesco Expresso and PAA
07
Annual revenue up to
R$30 million.
Investments in Infrastructure, IT and
Telecommunications
R$ Million
Investment (2007 to 2011):
R$ 16.5 billion
3,457
2,670
2,099
630
3,920
1,087
716
667
478
1,621
2,003
2007
2008
2,827
2009
IT/Telecommunication
4,328
3,204
2010
3,241
2011
Infrastructure
Cidade de Deus - IT Building
Source: Financial Statements.
08
Strategic Positioning in Sustainability
I
Floating Bradesco Branch
Signatory to the
Equator Principles
GRI Sustainability
Report
Financial
Education
Program
Greenhouse Gas
Emission Inventory
09
Eco-Efficiency
Master Plan
Banking
Inclusion
Banking Business Opportunities
Payroll - Deductible Loans
Investment Banking
• Increased investments in
Brazil
• Access to Bradesco’s
relationship network
• Target the 7MM pensioners
receiving pensions through
Bradesco
• Target new INSS beneficiaries
(190,000 per month)
• Leverage origination of private
and public agreements
• Low Mortgage/GDP ratio
• Housing Deficit of over 7.5
million
• Long-term relationship with
clients
Retail
Bradesco Empresas
• Formalization of the economy
• Broader access to banking
services
• Increased salary and
continued social mobility
• Synergy with other areas of
the Bank
• Further segmentation
• Consolidation of diverse
sectors of the economy
Credit Cards
• Substitution of payment
methods
• Social ascension
• Broader access to banking
services
Mortgages
Vehicle Financing
Corporate
• Monitor demand and business
opportunities in
infrastructure, consumption,
oil, gas and energy
• Support /explore growing
investments by foreign
companies in Brazil
10
• High inhabitant/ automobile
ratio
• Long-term relationship with
clients
• Opportunity for cross-selling
Insurance Business Opportunities(1)
USA
GDP (2)
CHINA
1st
PREMIUMS
JAPAN
3rd
2nd
1st
%
PREMIUMS/GDP
6th
8.0%
GERMANY
3.8%
4th
2nd
6th
5th
4th
5th
7.2%
10.1%
7th
3rd
3.1%
12.4%
8.1%
Health Plans Cover
24%
of the population
Insured Vehicles:
30%
(1)
11
8th
7th
10.5%
10%
Source: Swiss RE
ITALY
15th
Insured Homes:
1.48%
of Global
Market
UK
BRAZIL
FRANCE
8%
of the
population has
dental insurance
Does not include Savings Bonds.
(2)
IMF Estimates.
Branch in the Rocinha Community
Corporate Governance
1997: Level 1 ADRs Preferred
2001: Level 2 ADRs Preferred
and Latibex
2001: Joined BM&F
BOVESPA S.A.’s Corp.
Gov. Level 1
2012: Level 2 ADRs Common
Rating AA+ (Excellent
Corporate Governance
Practices) from Austin
Rating
Voluntary signatory to
ABRASCA’s Code of Best
Practices and SelfRegulation of Publicly-Held
Companies
1946: Listed its shares on
the Brazilian stock
exchange just three years
after it was founded
The Board of Directors
is assisted by five statutory
committees and 43
executive committees
In accordance with the
Sarbanes-Oxley Act,
internal controls and
information disclosure
processes were improved
13
100% Tag Along rights
for common shares
and 80% for preferred
shares
Integrated Risk Management
14
Investor Relations
Shareholder, analyst and investor
services
Activity
“Best APIMEC Meeting São Paulo” Award
Meetings with investors
Conference calls
Events in Brazil
Events abroad
Apimec/ INI Meetings
Chats/Videochats
“Best APIMEC Meeting Northeast” Award
“Best APIMEC Meeting Federal District” Award
“Best Publicly Held Company 2010”
Award – NATIONAL APIMEC
Total
2009 2010 2011
160
59
16
18
18
4
130
77
17
24
19
4
168
210
24
29
19
4
275 271
454
“Assiduidade ExpoMoney” Award
65.1%
15
Employees
Training - R$ Million
161
75
2007
94
87
2008
2009
107
2010
2011
Work Environment Survey*
Turnover (%)
9.0
2007
82
10.8
2008
81
81
80
9.1
2009
8.9
2010
7.8
78
2007
2011
2008
2009 2010 2011
* Refers to the “100 Best Companies to Work” published by Época magazine
16
Supplier Management
2006
Bradesco Suppliers Meeting
2008
Supplier Relationship Program
CDP Supply Chain
2009
Supplier Engagement Program (SA8000)
2010
Program for the Socio-Environmental
Evaluation and Monitoring of Suppliers
2011
Expansion of the Program for the SocioEnvironmental Evaluation and Monitoring
of Suppliers. Of the 21 strategic suppliers, 9
companies were engaged
17
Headquarters - Red Building - Cidade de Deus
Adjusted Net Income
R$ Million
11,198
2,771
9,804
7,210
7,625
7,586
2,684
2007
2008
2009
2011
2010
19
4Q10
4Q11
Net Income Breakdown
Fees
25
Insurance
29
Funding
7
%
Funding
6
Securities
8
2011
Fees
26
Insurance
30
%
2010
Banking 70
Securities
9
Loans
30
R$ 9,804 million
+14.2%
20
Banking 71
Loans
30
R$ 11,198 million
Unrealized Gains
R$ Million
Variation %
Securities – Fixed Income
Securities - Equities
Loan Operations
Investments
(1)
Others
Total
Dec 11
Sep 11
Dec 10
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
4,613
4,195
5,014
10.0
(8.0)
(1,504)
(1,600)
(382)
(6.0)
-
(70)
(431)
54
8,356
7,801
6,735
7.1
24.1
(777)
(908)
(864)
(14.4)
(10.1)
10,618
9,057
10,556
17.2
0.6
Obs.: Excluding the unrecorded goodwill from real estate for
own use in the amount of R$ 2,978 million.
(1) Includes, basically, the goodwill of interest in Cielo,
Odontoprev, BM&Fbovespa, Fleury and Cetip.
21
-
-
NII – Interest / Trading Gains
R$ Million
10,230 , 10.258
9,018
7,492 7,689
348
283
8,047
384
8,302
9,471
513
304
561
273
398
7,144
7,406 7,663 7,904
4Q09
1Q10
2Q
465
9,362
8,553
8,849
9,985
9,167 9,669
4Q
1Q11
2Q
3Q
Interest
22
3Q
4Q
Trading Gains
Core NIM & NII
R$ Million
10.5%
8.7%
7.8%
10.9%
8.6%
7.8%
11.9%
9.4%
7.8%
11.3%
10.5%
7.6%
7,144
7,406
7,663
7,904
4Q09
1Q10
2Q
3Q
12.0%
10.2%
7.8%
12.3%
11.2%
7.8%
12.6%
12.1%
11.9%
10.4%
7.6%
8,553
8,849
9,167
4Q
1Q11
2Q
23
7.6%
11.3%
10.0%
7.6%
9,669
9,985
3Q
4Q
Credit NII
R$ Million
50.2
38.9
37.5
35.3
37.4
38.2
37.2
40.1
37.2
7,162
6,928
5,373
5,630
5,757
5,833
6,143
6,180
6,548
2,661
2,779
2,695
2,678
2,188
3,442
2,161
2,059
3,596
3,774
2,295
3,848
2,360
3,820
09
(1) Including loan discounts granted, credit recovery, earnings from properties sold, among others.
24
2,437
4,111
4,149
4,501
Fee Income
%
Technical Analysis
Underwriting
Custody / Brokerage
2
Consortium
Tax Payments
Collection
2
3
3
Others
6
%
2010
2011
Technical Analysis
Others
Underwriting
2
5
Custody / Brokerage 3
Consortium
Tax Payments 2 3
Cards
31
Collection
8
Cards
33
8
13
Asset
Management
Asset
Management
14
13
18
Checking Accounts
Credit Operations
R$ 13,372 million
+13.8%
25
13
Credit Operations
18
Checking Accounts
R$ 15,223 million
Operating Expenses
R$ Million
Variation %
4Q11
3Q11
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Structural
Non - Structural
2,415
725
2,288
592
8,798
2,263
7,517
1,785
5.6
22.5
17.0
26.8
Personnel
3,140
2,880
11,061
9,302
9.0
18.9
Administrative
3,682
3,405
13,406
11,532
8.1
16.3
Total
6,822
6,285
24,467 20,834
8.5
17.4
Op. Expenses (1) / Total Assets 3.2%
3.2%
(1) Accumulated over 12 months.
26
12M11 12M10
3.2%
3.3%
-
(0.1) p.p.
Organic Growth
a) Operating Expenses - R$ Million
Variation %
4Q11
3Q11
12M11
12M10 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Administrative and Personnel Expenses
6,822
6,285
24,467
20,834
8.5
17.4
Organic Growth
(695)
(554)
(2,104)
(1,254)
25.5
67.8
Administrative and Personnel Expenses
6,127
5,731
22,363
19,580
6.9
14.2
b) Distribution Network and Employees
Variation%
4Q11
3Q11
12M11
12M10 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Branches (1)
Others (2)
4,634
55,077
3,945
51,877
4,634
55,077
3,628
45,053
17.5
6.2
27.7
22.2
Distribution Network
59,711
55,822
59,711
48,681
7.0
22.7
104,684 101,334 104,684
95,248
3.3
9.9
Employees
(1) In 2011, 1,009 agencies were opened; and
(2) Basically includes: (i) Bradesco Expresso, (ii) ATM Terminals in the Shared Network, (iii) External Bradesco ATM Terminals, and (iv) PAB, PAE,
PAA.
27
Efficiency Ratio
%
55.9
55.4
54.6
53.3
52.4
52.1
52.2
52.4
53.0
40.5
41.2
42.0
42.5
42.7
42.7
42.7
42.7
43.0
43.7
4Q09
41.9
1Q10
41.5
2Q
43.0
3Q
44.0
42.0
42.0
42.9
4Q
1Q11
2Q
3Q
12 – Month Efficiency Ratio
12 – Month Efficiency Ratio Adjusted to Risk (1)
Efficiency Ratio - Quarterly
(1) Includes PLL adjusted by discounts granted, by credit recovery, by income from the sale of foreclosed assets, among others.
28
45.1
4Q
Expanded Loan Portfolio
R$ Million
Variation %
Dec11
Sep11
110,430
106,955
93,446
3.2
18.2
22,395
21,929
18,561
2.1
20.7
132,825
128,883
112,007
3.1
18.6
102,826
97,192
84,180
5.8
22.2
1,402
871
767
61.0
82.8
SMEs - Total
104,228
98,063
84,947
6.3
22.7
INDIVIDUALS
108,671
105,389
98,243
3.1
10.6
345,724
332,335
295,197
4.0
17.1
Large Corporates
(1)
Other Loan Risk – Commercial Portfolio
LARGE CORPORATES - TOTAL
SMEs
(1)
Other Loan Risk – Commercial Portfolio
Expanded Loan Portfolio - Total
(2)
Dec10
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
(1) Includes debentures and promissory notes operations; and
(2) Includes sureties and guarantees, letters of credit, anticipation of credit card receivables, debentures, promissory notes, credit assignment with recourse (FIDC Receivables Securitization Fund and CRI - Real Estate Receivables Certificate), and Rural credit. Further information can be found on page 38 of the Report on Economic
and Financial Analysis
29
(1)
Delinquency Ratio > 90 days (1)
%
7.6
7.5
7.1
7.4
6.7
6.1
6.3
5.9
5.1
4.2
3.4
4.9
4.6
4.5 5.0
4.8
3.6
4.4
4.4
5.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
2.7
0.5
Dec
0.8
Mar09
0.5
Jun
0.9
Sep
0.9
Dec
Individuals
0.6
Mar10
0.5
Jun
0.6
Sep
5.5
4.7
3.6
3.4
0.4
Dec
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.5
0.5
Mar11
Individuals excluding Cards
SMEs
Large Corporates
(1) See the Report on Economic and Financial Analysis
30
5.7
4.6
3.7
3.6
0.4
Jun
Total
6.0
4.7
3.8
3.7
0.4
Sep
6.1
4.9
3.9
3.9
0.4
Dec
Allowance for Loan Losses, Overdue Credits and
Coverage Ratio
R$ Million
19,540
19,091
16,313
15,836
10,978
9,344
Dec
15,782
10,465
8,760
Mar10
16,019
10,132
8,371
Jun
16,290
9,886
8,351
Sep
16,740
9,973
8,243
Dec
17,365
10,520
8,648
Mar11
11,272
9,172
Jun
11,963
9,839
Sep
Allowance for Loan Losses (1)
Coverage Ratio > 60 Days (1/2)
Loan Portfolio Overdue > 60 Days (2)
Coverage Ratio > 90 Days (1/3)
Loan Portfolio Overdue > 90 Days (3)
31
12,870
10,598
Dec
Total Assets and Shareholders’ Equity
R$ Million
R$ Million
Total Assets
1.7%
1.7%
Shareholders’ Equity
1.6%
22.4%
22.2%
55,582
761,533
53,742
722,289
48,043
637,485
Dec10
21,3%
Sep11
Dec11
Dec10
ROAA (1)
Total Assets
Dec11
Sep11
Shareholders’ Equity
Basel Ratio - BIS II %
Dec10
Sep11
Dec11
13.1
12.2
12.4
Tier I
Tier II
Deductions
1.7
2.5
2.7
(0.1)
-
-
BIS
14.7
14.7
(1) Accumulated Adjusted Net Income for the period; and
(2) Excludes mark-to-market effects of available-for-sale securities registered under Shareholders’ Equity.
32
15.1
ROAE (1) (2)
Revenues From Written Premiums, Pension Plan
Contributions and Savings Bonds
R$ Million
Variation %
4Q11
3Q11
12M11
12M10
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
6,886
4,708
21,146
17,081
46.3
23.8
2,386
2,348
9,119
7,477
1.6
22.0
Auto and P&C
983
1,042
3,957
3,693
(5.7)
7.1
Savings Bonds
798
849
3,047
2,484
(6.0)
22.7
80
102
424
343
(21.6)
23.6
Total
11,133
9,049
37,693
31,078
23.0
21.3
Shareholders’ Equity
13,728
12,581
13,728
11,913
9.1
15.2
860
780
3,201
2,904
10.3
10.2
30.7%
28.2%
26.0%
26.0%
Life and Pension Plans
Health
(1)
Other Lines
Net Income
ROAE
(1) For management purposes, we consider total revenues. As of January 2010, as required by RN 206/09 (ANS) revenues from premiums started to be
accounted for “pro-rata temporis” (results), and PPNG (Unearned Premiums Provision) was no longer accounted for. This accounting change did not
affect earned premiums. The effects on accounted written premiums were R$57 million.
33
Combined Ratio and Other Information (1)
R$ Billion
Technical Provisions
Combined Ratio % (2)
85.3
85.1
86.1
85.8
Health
Pension Plans
and Life / VGBL
86.2
91.0
83.6
4,0
4.0
91,0
3.5
84.8
76.3
3Q10
4Q
1Q11
Financial Assets
2Q
3Q
4Q
Dec10
97.1
3.9
87.2
96.5
Sep11
Dec11
Savings Bonds
Auto and P&C
103.7
107.2
Dec10
Technical Provisions
Technical Provisions
113.0
Dec11
Sep11
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.6
91,0
91,0
3.7
Dec10
Sep11
Dec11
Dec10
Sep11
Dec11
Dec10
(1) Financial Assets and Technical Provisions; and
(2) Excluding Additional Provisions.
34
Sep11
Dec11
Dec10
Sep11
Dec11
2012 Guidance
18 to 22%
Loan Portfolio (1)
16 to 20%
Individuals
Corporates
18 to 22 %
23 to 27 %
13 to 17 %
SMEs
Large Corporates
Products
Vehicles
Cards (2)
Mortgages (origination)
Payroll-Deductible Loans
Net Interest Income
4 to 8 %
13 to 17 %
R$ 11.4 bn
26 to 30 %
(3)
10 to 14 %
Fee Income
Operating Expenses (4)
Insurance Premiums
8 to 12 %
8 to 12 %
13 to 16 %
(1) Expanded Loan Portfolio;
(2) Does not include the “BNDES Cards” and “Discounts on Advances of Receivables” portfolios;
(3) Under current criterion, Guidance for Financial Margin; and
(4) Administrative and Personnel Expenses.
35
BM&F Bovespa
Market Capitalization
R$ Million
109,463
103,192
109,759 106,971
84,801
16,546 15,167
2001
2002
22,699
2003
65,354
a
64,733
28,750
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3.6x
1.9x
2.5x
2.3x
2011
P/BV
1.7x
1.4x
1.7x
1.9x
3.3x
3.4x
37
1.9x
Dividends
%
Dividends Distributed:
Over R$ 23.8 billion
61.5
49.3
45.6
41.2
52.3
35.3
41.9
38.7
35.9
35.3
34.4
31.5
31.5
31.5
37.2
35.7
35.4
35.7
33.1
31.5
31.5
31.5
3,740
3,369
R$ Million
1,881
1,347
849
2001
2,823
2,692
2,718
2007
2008
2009
2,160
1,325
947
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Net Pay Out (*)
Dividends
(*) Accumulated 12 months.
38
Gross Pay Out(*)
2010
2011
Stock Evolution (*)
Accumulated
686%
686%
272%
%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Common
-5
Preferred
Ibovespa
-1
50
36
133
34
25
-38
-6
-10
56
35
118
33
33
-11
-17
97
18
28
33
44
* Adjusted by dividends
Source: Economatica
39
2008
2009
2010
2011
55
7
2
-37
66
12
-2
-41
83
1
-18
Reasons to Invest in Bradesco
National
Coverage
Synergy
Bank / Insurance
Solid Bank
Segmented
Structure
Strong
State-of-the-Art
Organizational
Technology
Structure
40
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