A revolução dos não convencionais: panorama global

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www.woodmac.com
A revolução dos não convencionais: panorama global
XI Seminário Internacional Britcham de Energia - Tema: Não Convencionais
September 10th, 2013
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Unconventional Revolution
Uncons Manifesto:
“The reward
must be worth
the risks”
© Wood Mackenzie 2
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Agenda
1
Wood Mackenzie Introduction
2
The Global Unconventional Revolution
3
The US Experience Part One: The Rewards
4
The US Experience Part Two: The Risks
5
Global Activity
6
Implications for Brazil
© Wood Mackenzie 3
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Wood Mackenzie offers best-in-class research and information services
developed by teams of experts across the energy and minerals value chains
MACRO VIEW
Macro Oils
Global Oil Supply Tool
Energy Markets
Oil market fundamentals to 2030
Crude oil supply analysis to 2030
Energy matrix analysis by country
EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
Exploration Service
Commercial analysis across 400
prospective plays globally
GAS & POWER
REFINING
North American Gas
Natural gas market fundamentals for
USA, Canada and Mexico
Upstream Service
European Gas & Power
Product Market Service
Upstream asset insights and analysis
European natural gas & power market
fundamentals
Global market fundamentals for oil
products and derivatives
PathFinder
Southeast Asia Gas & Power
Southeast Asia natural gas and power
market fundamentals
Refinery Evaluation Model
Exploration and production database
integrated with a GIS maping interface
Refining evaluation model covering
all global refinery assets
LNG Service
Global Economic Model
Modeling tool to evaluate global assets
and companies
Financial and economic analysis on a
project-by-project level across the LNG
value chain from upstream to markets
Unconventional Plays
Global Gas Service
Qualitative and quantitative analysis of
unconventional assets worldwide
Global natural gas market fundamentals
CORPORATE VIEW
CAT (Corporate Analysis Tool)
Corporate Service
M&A Service
Comparative analysis of portfolios of 2500
companies worldwide via extensive database
Qualitative analysis of 44 E&P companies
(Super Majors, Independents & NOCs)
E&P sector M&A analysis
covering all deals over $100MM
© Wood Mackenzie 4
Strategy
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insight
Our consultants advise clients across 60 countries
Edinburgh
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Annapolis
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Wood Mackenzie Offices
Wood Mackenzie Consulting Experience
© Wood Mackenzie 5
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We serve clients across the energy and minerals value chain
Wood Mackenzie has had the privledge to serve over 800 clients, including:
Supermajors
Majors
“Independents”
Junior E&P
NOCs/Gov’t
Power / Utilities
Mining
© Wood Mackenzie 6
Strategy
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Delivering
commercial
insight
Wood Mac has executed a variety of consulting projects in Latin America
Exemplos de Projetos Recentes
Mexico and Carribean
Regional NOC
Uncon Plays Strategy
Regional NOC
Exploration Strategy
Investment Bank
Gas Commercialization
Global Mining Co.
Energy & LNG Procurement
Power Developer
LNG Procurement & Negotiation
Industrial
Phosphates / Gas Strategy
Northern South America
Regional NOC
Uncon Plays Strategy
Regional NOC
E&P Strategy Review
Regional NOC
Gas Monetization
Regional NOC
Southern Cone
Asian Integrated
Brazil Pipeline Due Diligence
Super Major
Uncon Gas Case Studies
Gas Commercialization
LNG Marketing
Co. & Utilities
LNG Supply Strategy &
Negotiations
Regional NOC
Corporate Restructuring
Brazil Cement Co.
Energy Procurement
Regional NOC
Above Ground Risk
Brazil E&P Co.
Uncon Gas Value Creation
Government
Hydrocarbons Master Plan
Brazil Mining Co.
Uncon Gas Entry Strategy
Regional NOC
E&P Restructuring
IOC
Brazil Gas Market Entry
Russian NOC
Upstream Entry
Regional NOC
Gas Monetization Strategy
Canadian Jr. IOC
Uncon Partnering Strategy
Brazil E&P Co.
Uncon Gas Investor Pitch
Gas Distribution Co.
Fuel Competitiveness
Regional NOC
LNG Strategy Briefing
Government
G&P Project Development
Supermajor
Brazil Gas Industry Deep Dive
© Wood Mackenzie 7
Strategy
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insight
Wood Mac is developing a multi-client study designed to help participants in
Brazil’s gas markets make strategic decisions
Brazil’s Natural Gas: Profit or Peril? Navigating a paradigm shift in Brazil's changing gas market
© Wood Mackenzie 8
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Agenda
Uncons Manifesto:
“The reward must be worth the risks”
1
2
3
4
5
Global Activity
6
© Wood Mackenzie 9
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
The Global Unconventional Revolution has just begun…
Global Unconventional Gas Production Potential (by Resource Type)
Bcf / d
Historic
Forecast
Shale Gas
Coalbed Methane
Tight Gas
Source: Wood Mackenzie Global Gas Service
© Wood Mackenzie 10
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
…and should spread globally
Global Unconventional Gas Production Potential (by Regional Markets)
Historic
Forecast
Bcf / d
Rest of World
North America
Source: Wood Mackenzie Global Gas Service
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Agenda
Uncons Manifesto:
1
2
3
4
5
Global Activity
6
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
The road to success is long, expensive, difficult, and risky…
• Drilling to maintain production
• Continuous improvement
• Sustainable operations
• Experiment with technologies
• Understand the geology
Derisk and Delineate
Identify and Test
Dozens of Shale Plays
•
•
•
•
Mobilize the supply chain
Build organizational capability
Manage service companies
Secure take-away capacity
• Identify a concept
• Secure acreage
• Drill “wildcats”
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
The Eagle Ford was explored collectively by dozens of different companies
Eagle Ford Play: First 120 Wells
101°W
99°W
98°W
97°W
CANADA
30°N
30°N
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
Texas
lW
Oi
ow
ind



e
 sat

n
Ga


 

28°N

 


 


 
 
MEXICO
























e
nd
Co
s




 Win








 

s













 y 
Ga
 
 

r


D









w
do
n
i 

W w

do
lf
Gu
C
s
Ba
st
a
o
in
28°N
29°N
Maverick
Basin
29°N
Sa n An to ni o

Eag le Ford
Corp us
Chri sti
La red o
Wells by O perator









Common Res. 

ConocoPhillips 
Dan Hughes

EO G

Anadarko
El Paso
Antares
Enduring Res.
 Murphy
 Petrohawk





Lewis Pet.


Modern Exploraiton 


Source: Wood Mackenzie
101°W
0
25
50
GeoSouthern
Laredo Energy
100°W
km
100
27°N
27°N
Co-opetition (n):
cooperation between competitors in
pursuit of common interests to
maximize value for the industry
100°W
Pioneer
Rosetta Res.
SM Energy
San Isidro
TXCO
99°W
98°W
97°W
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Then it began attracting a large amount of capital…
Eagle Ford Specific M&A Activity (2009-2011)
25,000
Approximate US$/acre
20,000
Deals motivated by seller seeking to monetize
proven assets (transitioning to Exploit Stage)
Marathon
Talisman acquisition of Common
kicks off resource frenzy
15,000
CNOOC
10,000
Early pilot stage deals,
average $2.8K / acre
5,000
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Note: Size of bubble is proportional to acreage interest sold
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
…which was necessary to fund an aggressive ramp up in drilling
Eagle Ford Wells CAPEX by Company
1800
(3,477)
25,000
1500
US$ millions
(2,512)
20,000
1200
15,000
900
(1,619)
10,000
600
5,000
300
(592)
(8)
(45)
2008
2009
0
0
Source: Wood Mackenzie Lower 48 Service
2010
2011
2012
2013
Production ('000 boepd)
30,000
(X,XXX) = Net Wells Drilled
Other Covered Companies
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
...
ConocoPhillips
EOG Resources
Production
16
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Agenda
Uncons Manifesto:
1
2
3
4
5
Global Activity
6
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Failed US Shale Plays
Arguably
Non-commercial
US Shale Plays
Known
Wells
Estimated Cost
(US$ millions)
Barnett Woodford
23
$380
Conasauga
28
$98
Mancos
22
$97
Gothic
14
$78
Baxter
19
$67
Palo Duro
20
$60
Floyd
7
$28
Cody
6
$18
Pierre
7
$16
Collingwood
1
$10
147
$850
Total
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Plays exhibit either limited core areas or heterogeneous “sweet spotting”
Unconventional Plays Core Areas and Sweet Spots
98°W
97°W
Ft. Worth Basin Barnett
55-75% Commercial
h
Mu
e
Clay
Jack
Wise
ns
ter
Denton
Ar
ch
Sioux
Ellis
Johnson
Bosque
Johnson
Haynesville
10% Core Area
Hill
Texas
Platte
Weston
Converse
Powder
River
Basin
Goshen
Laramie
Carbon
South Dakota
Niobrara
Natrona
Fort Worth
Basin
km 99°W
40
98°W
Scotts Bluff
Banner
Denver
Julesburg
Basin
Cheyenne
Kimball
Nebraska
Colorado
Larimer
Logan
Weld
97°W
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Fort Collins
Loveland
Yuma
Washington
Grand
Boulder
Boulder
40°N
0 10 20
Jackson
42°N
Dallas
Campbell
Somervell
32°N
104°W
DJ Niobrara
Structures
Morgan
40°N
Stru
hita
Hood
106°W
Dallas
Fort Worth
Tarrant
Qua
c
Erath
Eastland
Viola
Limestone
Parker
Wyoming
Palo Pinto
Stephens
42°N
Young
33°N
al F
ron
t
Oil Window
ctur
Bend Arch
Eagle Ford
“Sweet Spots”
Montague
Archer
33°N
34°N
Red R
iver A
rc
32°N
34°N
99°W
Adams
Gilpin
Denver
Arapahoe
Douglas
Elbert
Commerciality
Lincoln
Commercial
Non-Commercial
0
10
20
km
40
106°W
104°W
Source: Wood Mackenzie, ESRI Topography
19
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
During development, unconventionals are exposed to high commercial risk
Unconventional vs. Conventional Development Project Sensitivities
Oil Price
Liquid Volumes
CAPEX
Heidelberg Downside
Heidelberg Upside
OPEX
Bakken Downside
Bakken Upside
-150%
-125%
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Change in project NPV from a 20% change in Price / Volume / CAPEX / OPEX
20
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Agenda
Uncons Global Manifesto:
“Where is the reward worth the risks?”
1
2
3
4
5
Global Activity
6
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Key Success Factors for Unconventionals
Market
Fiscal
Terms
Knowledge
of Geology
Infrastructure
Land
Access
Supply
Chain
Regulation
Social
Support
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Global unconventional activity heats up
Select International Unconventional Pilot Announcements
Country
Amount
(millions)
4/4/2012
Colombia
$50
Initial three test wells to earn 50% of Canacol
interest in VMM block
6/18/2012
Ukraine
$55
Initial exploration campaign in Lviv Basin
6/20/2012
Australia
$210
11/7/2012
Australia
AUS $183
12/6/2012
Russia
$300
Partnership with Rosneft, core lab, pilot wells
1/23/2013
Ukraine
$200
Seismic and pilot wells work commitment
7/16/2013
Argentina
$1,500
Date
Company
Comments
Three phased exploration campaign
Three stage Georgina basin campaign
100 pilot well program on initial 5,000 acres
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
China appears well placed for “co-opetition” with a strong set of companies
Sichuan Basin
Established basin with
conventional fields and
infrastructure
Companies in Core Prospective Areas
New Entrants
Second shale gas
licensing round
attracts
entrepreneurial
interest
Recent Shale Blocks
Shenhua
Tongren Energy
China Coal Geo. Eng.
Huaying Shanxi Energy
Beijing Taitantongyuan
Huadian
Henan Provincial CSG
HK & China Gas
Hunan Huasheng
Sinopec
Chongqing Energy
Chongqing Mineral Res
Dart Energy
24
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Agenda
Brazil Uncons Manifesto:
“Will the reward be worth the risks?”
1
2
3
4
5
Global Activity
6
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Is Brazil poised to join the revolution?
Reconcavo
Sao Francisco (Licensed Blocks)
Portiguar
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Conclusion
Uncons Manifesto:
“The reward
must be worth
the risks”
Co-opetition (n):
cooperation between competitors in
pursuit of common interests to
maximize value for the industry
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Contacts
Preston Cody
Sr. Managing Consultant, Upstream
Tel.: +1 713 470 1658
Email: [email protected]
Pedro Camarota
Region Manager, Southern Cone
Tel.: +55 21.3550.7702
Email: [email protected]
Strategy
with substance
Delivering
commercial
insight
Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Consulting. It has not been
prepared for the benefit of any particular person and may not be relied upon by any
person or other third party. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this presentation is relied
upon by any person, Wood Mackenzie does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for
loss and damage suffered as a result.
The information contained in these slides may be retained by recipients.
However, these slides and the contents of this presentation may not be disclosed to any
other person or published by any means without Wood Mackenzie Consulting prior
written permission.
Strategy
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Delivering
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insight
Detalles de contacto global
Europa
+44 (0)131 243 4400
América
+1 713 470 1600
Asia y el Pacíf ico
+65 6518 0800
Correo electrónico
[email protected]
Sitio web
Oficinas globales
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Wood Mackenzie es la fuente más completa de conocimiento sobre las industrias del metal y la energía del mundo.
Analizamos y asesoramos sobre todas las etapas de la cadena de valor (desde el descubrimiento a la entrega, y más allá)
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Strategy
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Delivering
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A revolução dos não convencionais: panorama global

Transcrição

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