Latvian perspective on forest adaptation to climate change

Latvian perspective on
forest adaptation to climate change
Aris Jansons,
Roberts Matisons, Una Neimane
[email protected]
Growth intensity, mm day-1
Growth intensity
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
Early
Average
Late
 Increased productivity
 Selection of early-flushing clones
Average temperature
Growth intensity:
differences between tree species
Augstuma pieaugums diennaktī, mm
Height increment per day, mm
25
20
15
10
5
0
Datums
Date
apse 2010
apse 2011
priede
-0.4
June y, precipitation
December y-1, precipitation
November y-1, precipitation
August y-1, precipitation
July y-1, precipitation
June y-1, precipitation
November y-2, precipitation
0.2
January y, maximal
temperature
January y, minimal
temperature
October y-1, mean
temperature
December y-1, minimal
temperature
April y-1, mean temperature
November y-2, mean
temperature
Annual height increment
0.4
Correlation
Response
function
0
-0.2
Annual height increment:
moving intervals
Increment:
direct comparison in provenance trials
Diameter, cm
20
15
DE
LV
PL
10
5
0
S1
S2
S3
Locatiojn of trial
S4
Predicted changes of vegetation zones
Present
End of the century
Hickler et al., 2012
«Introduced» tree species:
PCA of annual increment variation
Yield of dominant trees, m-3ha-1
«Introduced» tree species:
growth of Fagus sylvatica
1000
800
21.kv. 25.nog.
21.kv. 1.nog.
600
26.kv. 7.nog.
23.kv. 25.nog.
400
14.kv. 3.nog.
21.kv. 27.nog.
Vācija
200
Log. (Vācija)
0
0
50
100
Age, years
150
Average number of
days with ice
Ice damages in forest
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Liepaja
Aluksne
10 11 12 1 2 3
Month of the year
4
LVĢMC
(Krauklis, 2006; http://chalk.richmond.edu)
There is no reason to believe,
that frequency of ice events will
decrease in future due to
climatic changes
Ice damages in forest
Ice damages, independently from dominant tree species, were
found for 27% of trees.
Recommendations
• Assessment of risks (regionally)
• Tree breeding
• Planting
• Increased number of tree species
• Mixture at landscape scale
• Shorter rotation
Thank You!
Research was carried out in Forest Competence
Centre (ERAF) project „Methods and technologies for
increasing forest capital value” (No. L-KC-11-0004)
Aris Jansons
[email protected]