brazil macroeconomic outlook

BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK:
INCREDIBLE MOMENT OF A POLITICAL
CRISIS
BUT WE CANNOT JEOPARDIZE THIS
CRISIS
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Economic Research Department
March, 2016
WHY IS THE FISCAL POLICY SO CHALLENGING?
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
Political crisis affects hardly the fiscal adjustment

Mandatory expenditures by law reflect sectorial demands
that become permanent

Economy is still languish, impacting revenues performance
Déficit (R$ bi)
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL SECURITY DEFICIT (R$ BILLION)
180
155
160
145
140
129
120
100
86
80
57
60
40
26
20
32
38
42
50
45
36
43
43
36
41
17
00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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SOURCE: STN, BRADESCO
PRIMARY SURPLUS AS % OF GDP 2001-2018
05%
3.7%
3.2%
04%
3.2%
Proj Governo
3.3%
2.9%
Proj DEPEC (Sem medidas)
2.6%
2.2%
03%
1.9%
1.8%
Proj DEPEC Base (Com medidas)
02%
01%
2,0%
0.5%
1,5%
00%
-0.6%
-01%
-1.6%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.8%
-02%
-1,4%
-03%
-1.4%
-04%
-2.0%
-05%
2005
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2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SOURCE: BACEN
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2017*
2018*
CONFIDENCE INDEX – INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS
69
67.1
67.1
Média (2003+)
62.8
64
61.7
ICEI
60.4
57.7
57.5
59
57.0
54
54.4
53.2
55.3
54.7
51.8
49
51.9
54.5
48.2
46.8
44
39.3
39
SOURCE: CNI, BRADESCO
fev/16
mai/15
ago/14
nov/13
fev/13
mai/12
ago/11
nov/10
fev/10
mai/09
ago/08
nov/07
fev/07
mai/06
ago/05
nov/04
fev/04
mai/03
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5
36.5
36.6
34
INVENTORIES LEVEL – INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
120.8
122
120.3
118
114
Média
histórica
(2004+)
110.9
110
113.3
112.0
109.1
107.8
107.1
106
102
103.5
103.2
102.6
102.4
105.4
98
98.5
96.2
96.4
94
* THE HIGHER THE INDICATOR, THE HIGHER THE INVENTORIES
SOURCE: FGV, BRADESCO
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fev/16
jul/15
dez/14
mai/14
out/13
mar/13
ago/12
jan/12
jun/11
nov/10
abr/10
set/09
fev/09
jul/08
dez/07
mai/07
out/06
mar/06
ago/05
jan/05
jun/04
90
CONFIDENCE CONSUMER INDEX
Confiança do Consumidor
Fonte: FGV
Neutro
Elaboração: Bradesco
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS)
Set/2005=100
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
99.0 98.0
99.6
95.8
109.5
99.5
108.3
107.7
102.3
98.2
101.8
104.1
100
96.6
98.6
91.8
92.6
86.6
85.2
75.3
74.8
68.5
SOURCE: FGV, BRADESCO
fev/16
ago/15
fev/15
ago/14
fev/14
ago/13
fev/13
ago/12
fev/12
ago/11
fev/11
ago/10
fev/10
ago/09
fev/09
ago/08
fev/08
ago/07
fev/07
64.9
ago/06
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7
112.9
110.8
ECONOMY IS STILL LANGUISH: AN EXTENDED RECESSION
8.5
7.5
7.5
6.5
6.1
5.8
5.1
5.5
4.5
4.4
4.0
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.9
3.0
2.5
3.0
1.9
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.1
0.1
0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-1.5
-2.5
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
-3.5
2017
-3.8
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-4.5
2015
-3.5
PIB: CONSUMO
GDP : CONSUMPTION – ANNUAL VARIATION
8.00
6.4
6.00
4.00
6.5
6.2
5.3
3.9
4.7
4.5
4.4
3.5
3.5
2.5
2.00
1.3
1.0
.00
-4.0
-4.0
2016
-4.00
2015
-2.00
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-6.00
EXPANDED RETAIL SALES (ANNUAL VARIATION)
13.6
14.0
12.2
11.0
9.9
8.0
8.0
5.0
6.8
6.4
6.6
3.6
3.1
2.0
-1.0
-1.7
-4.0
-5.0
-7.0
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
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2015
-8.6
-10.0
REAL INCOMES – 2004 TO 2016
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.2
3.4
4.1
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.7
3.0
1.9
1.6
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.0
-1.0
-0.9
-2.0
-3.0
-3.7
-4.0
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-5.0
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE)
12.5
11.5
11.5
10.5
9.8
10.2
10.0
9.3
9.5
8.9
8.5
8.5
7.9
8.1
7.5
6.8
6.7
6.5
5.9
5.5
5.5
5.4
4.8
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
4.5
PAYROLL (NUMBER OF JOBS)
2137
2,000
1617
1523
1,500
1,000
1254
1566
1452
1229
995
762
868
645
900
731
700
397
500
0
-500
-1,000
-840
-1,500
SOURCE: MTE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
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2015
-1692
-2,000
GDP : INVESTMENTS – ANNUAL VARIATION
20.0
17.9
15.0
10.0
12.0
12.3
8.5
6.7
6.7
5.0
2.0
7.0
5.8
4.5
0.8
0.0
-2.1
-5.0
-4.5
-10.0
-11.0
-15.0
-14.1
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-20.0
PIB: AGRO
GDP : AGRICULTURAL – ANNUAL VARIATION
10.00
8.4
8.00
6.7
5.8
6.00
5.6
4.6
4.00
2.1
1.8
2.0
2015
2016
2.0
2014
2.00
3.5
3.2
2.5
1.1
.00
-2.00
-4.00
-3.1
-3.7
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-6.00
GDP : INDUSTRY – ANNUAL VARIATION
12.00
10.2
10.00
8.2
8.00
6.2
6.00
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.00
2.0
2.00
2.5
2.2
2.0
.00
-0.7
-2.00
-0.9
-4.00
-4.7
-6.00
-5.0
-6.2
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-8.00
GDP: SERVICES – ANNUAL VARIATION
7.00
5.8
5.00
5.0
5.8
4.8
4.3
3.7
3.4
3.00
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.1
1.0
1.00
0.4
-1.00
-3.00
-2.7
-3.5
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-5.00
VARIAÇÃO ANUAL DO PIB DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL
2043 - 2016 Fonte: IBGE Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco
GDP : CONSTRUCTION – ANNUAL VARIATION
15%
13.1%
10.7%
9.2%
10%
7.0%
2020*
4.9%
05%
7.0%
2019*
8.2%
7.0%
5.0%
4.5%
3.2%
3.0%
0.3%
00%
-0.9%
-2.1%
-05%
-5.7%
-7.6%
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2018*
2017*
2016*
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-10%
PETROBRAS OIL PRODUCTION–
THOUSAND
Produção de Petróleo
da Petrobras BARRELS PER DAY
2,700
2,292
2,128 2,148 2,117 2,158
2,200
1,777 1,792
1,855
2,213
2,034
2,022
1,971 2,004
1,980
1,932
1,683
1,700
1,500 1,540
1,271
1,493
1,336
1,132
1,200
1,004
700
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
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SOURCE: PETROBRAS, BRADESCO
PETROBRAS CAPEX – USD MILLION
Capex
60,000
48,383
50,000
43,406 43,288 43,038
40,000
35,443
35,000
29,053
30,000
23,256
23,000
20,000
20,000
15,487
10,554
10,000
5,245
6,469
6,010
2002
2003
4,084
7,451
0
2000
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2001
2004
2005
SOURCE: PETROBRAS, BRADESCO
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
INFLATION: DESPITE THE
RECESSION, SLOWING
DOWN WILL BE MODERATE
AND GRADUAL
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IPCA: CONSUMER PRICES INDEX
(ANNUAL VARIATION)
IPCA ANUAL
14.0%
12.53%
12.0%
10.67%
10.0%
9.30%
8.94%
7.67%
8.0%
7.60%
5.91% 6.50%
5.90%
5.97%
6.0%
6.90%
5.91% 6.41%
5.69%
5.40%
4.46%
4.0%
4.31%
3.14%
2.0%
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SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2017*
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
HISTORICAL RESISTENCE OF INFLATION IN BRAZIL
1999-2015
6.81%
1999-2014
6.63%
2000-2014
6.48%
2001-2014
6.51%
1999-2002
8.78%
2000-2002
8.73%
2003-2010
5.79%
2011-2014
6.16%
2015-2018
0.00%
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6.39%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
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SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
04/03/16
03/02/16
04/01/16
05/12/15
05/11/15
06/10/15
5.75
06/09/15
5.61 5.60
5.50
5.50
07/08/15
08/07/15
08/06/15
09/05/15
09/04/15
5.50
10/03/15
5.60
08/02/15
09/01/15
5.8
10/12/14
5.41
10/11/14
5.50
11/10/14
11/09/14
12/08/14
13/07/14
13/06/14
14/05/14
5.50
14/04/14
15/03/14
13/02/14
14/01/14
15/12/13
5.30
15/11/13
16/10/13
5.3
16/09/13
17/08/13
18/07/13
MEDIAN MARKET EXPECTATION FOR THE IPCA IN 2016
7.8
7.59
7.3
6.8
6.3
5.86
5.40
4.8
BRAZILIAN CPI (IPCA): MARKET ESTIMATES (AVERAGE) 2009-2019
12.0
% y/y
11.0
10.67
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.59
7.0
6.50
5.91
6.0
5.0
6.41
6.05
5.91
5.84
5.56
5.26
4.31
4.0
3.0
2.0
2009*
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2010*
2011*
SOURCE: FOCUS
2012*
2013*
2014*
ESTIMATES: MARKET
2015*
2016
* EFFECTIVE
2017
2018
2019
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – ADMINISTERED PRICES - ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE – 2005-2016
20.0%
18.06%
15.0%
10.0%
8.96%
6.70%
6.20%
5.0%
5.31%
4.73%
4.27%
3.27%
3.67%
3.13%
1.65%
1.52%
0.0%
2005
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2006
2007
2008
2009
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – DURABLE GOODS PRICES ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2002-2016
5.00%
4.00%
3.61%
3.06%
3.00%
3.00%
3.27%
2.00%
0.94%
1.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.01%
-1.00%
-2.00%
-1.55%
-1.75%
-1.89%
-3.00%
-3.47%
-4.00%
2005
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2006
2007
2008
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – SERVICE PRICES - ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE – 2002-2016
SERVIÇOS ANUAL
12.0%
9.79%
10.0%
8.74%
8.10%
8.73%
8.33%
8.02%
8.12%
8.0%
7.32%
6.66%
6.0%
6.77%
5.54%
6.80%
6.73%
5.72%
5.79%
2006
2007
4.86%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2001
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2002
2003
2004
2005
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
ALIMENTAÇÃO ANUAL
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – FOOD PRICES - ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE – 2005-2016
22.0%
19.46%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.01%
12.0%
10.0%
10.77% 11.12%
10.39%
9.86%
9.63%
8.48%
7.48%
8.0%
9.00%
8.03%
7.19%
6.0%
3.87%
4.0%
3.17%
1.99%
2.0%
1.23%
0.0%
2001
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2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
INTEREST RATES MARKET SHAKEN BY THE IMPACT OF THE NEW
FISCAL TARGET - NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC)
28.0%
25.00%
21.0%
19.00%
19.00%
17.75%18.00%
16.50%
15.75%
14.25%
13.75%
13.25%
14.0%
11.25%
12.25%
11.75%
10.75%11.00%
10.25%
10.00%
9.25%
8.75%
7.25%
7.0%
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2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
SOURCE: BCB
PRODUCTION: BRADESCO
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE
RATER$/US$
- R$/US$
2016Bloomberg
TAXA DE CÂMBIO
2011 2013
- 2014. -fonte:
4.20
DECEMBER 2008
R$ 2.34 / US$
DECEMBER 2012
R$ 2.04 / US$
4.00
DECEMBER 2009
R$ 1.74 / US$
DECEMBER 2010
R$ 1.67 / US$
DECEMBER 2013
R$ 2.35 / US$
DECEMBER 2014
R$ 2.65 / US$
DECEMBER 2011
R$ 1.88 / US$
DECEMBER 2015
R$ 3.96 / US$
3.80
3.60
3.40
4.18
4.16
3.94
3.89
3.89
3.77
3.54
3.70
3.76
3.65
3.29
3.18
3.20
3.12
3.00
2.74
2.80
2.60
2.46
2.40
2.38
2.26
2.43
2.50
2.36
2.28
2.20
2.02
2.92
2.57
2.40
2.20
2.20
2.15
2.00
2.30
2.78
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SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
3/10/16
2/10/16
1/10/16
12/10/15
11/10/15
10/10/15
9/10/15
8/10/15
7/10/15
6/10/15
5/10/15
4/10/15
3/10/15
2/10/15
1/10/15
12/10/14
11/10/14
10/10/14
9/10/14
8/10/14
7/10/14
6/10/14
5/10/14
4/10/14
3/10/14
2/10/14
1/10/14
12/10/13
11/10/13
10/10/13
9/10/13
8/10/13
7/10/13
6/10/13
5/10/13
4/10/13
3/10/13
1.80
CDS VS EXCHANGE RATE
CDS
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
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SOURCE: BRADESCO
REAL R$/US$
2,99
3,14
3,26
3,43
3,61
3,80
4,01
4,20
4,41
4,63
EXCHANGE RATE (POST STRESS SCENARIO) - R$/US$
2000 – 2018
4.40
4.20
3.90
4.00
3.80
3.53
3.20
2.89
2.65
2.65
2.60
2.34
2.32
2.35
2.34
2.14
2.00
2.04
1.96
1.88
1.77
1.74
1.67
1.40
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
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2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.80
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SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
Indonesia
UAE
-0.7%
Japan
Czech Republic
Euro
DXY
#N/D
59.0%
Switzerland
Poland
Singapore
3.6%
Australia
Egypt
Pakistan
4.6%
Taiwan
China
UK
7.1%
Canada
Philippines
Korea
9.0%
Chile
Thailand
Índia
New Zealand
Peru
Turkey
Malaysia
19.0%
Mexico
Russia
Brazil
Colombia
29.0%
South Africa
Argentina
ACCUMULATED VARIATION IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF SELECTED
CURRENCIES
69.0%
Última atualização:
10/03/2016
49.0%
39.0%
25.5%
15.3%
10.6%
1.9%
-1.0%
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35
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SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
10/03/16
3.70
11/02/16
94.99
14/01/16
17/12/15
4.18
19/11/15
22/10/15
93.14
24/09/15
100.33
27/08/15
30/07/15
DXY
02/07/15
3.29
04/06/15
Real
07/05/15
86.69
09/04/15
92.0
12/03/15
12/02/15
2.43
15/01/15
18/12/14
20/11/14
23/10/14
25/09/14
87.0
28/08/14
31/07/14
03/07/14
05/06/14
82.0
08/05/14
79.19
10/04/14
13/03/14
13/02/14
2.46
16/01/14
19/12/13
21/11/13
24/10/13
26/09/13
29/08/13
01/08/13
04/07/13
06/06/13
Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg.
EXCHANGE RATES: BRL/USD & DXY
102.0
100.17
4.16
98.03
4.2
97.0
97.39
3.86
95.56
96.05
3.65
3.6
93.93
3
84.45
2.92
2.28
2.57
2.4
77.0
79.09
1.8
03/04/11
18/05/11
02/07/11
16/08/11
30/09/11
14/11/11
29/12/11
12/02/12
28/03/12
12/05/12
26/06/12
10/08/12
24/09/12
08/11/12
23/12/12
06/02/13
23/03/13
07/05/13
21/06/13
05/08/13
19/09/13
03/11/13
18/12/13
01/02/14
18/03/14
02/05/14
16/06/14
31/07/14
14/09/14
29/10/14
13/12/14
27/01/15
13/03/15
27/04/15
11/06/15
26/07/15
09/09/15
24/10/15
08/12/15
22/01/16
07/03/16
Correlação: 96,5%
5 YEARS CDS AND BRL
570.0
520.0
220.0
120.0
‹n
36
‹n
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4.178
470.0
BRL
3.535
420.0
3.292
370.0
392
320.0
2.700
270.0
2.455
215
170.0
1.540
70.0
106
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
2.485
2.282
241
157
4.30
CDS_5
3.767
3.70
408
3.10
303
2.50
2.136
222
1.90
147
126
1.30
dez/01
fev/02
abr/02
jun/02
ago/02
out/02
dez/02
fev/03
abr/03
jun/03
ago/03
out/03
dez/03
fev/04
abr/04
jun/04
ago/04
out/04
dez/04
fev/05
abr/05
jun/05
ago/05
out/05
dez/05
fev/06
abr/06
jun/06
ago/06
out/06
dez/06
fev/07
abr/07
jun/07
ago/07
out/07
dez/07
fev/08
abr/08
jun/08
ago/08
out/08
dez/08
fev/09
abr/09
jun/09
ago/09
out/09
dez/09
fev/10
abr/10
jun/10
ago/10
out/10
dez/10
fev/11
abr/11
jun/11
ago/11
out/11
dez/11
fev/12
abr/12
jun/12
ago/12
out/12
dez/12
fev/13
abr/13
jun/13
ago/13
out/13
dez/13
fev/14
abr/14
jun/14
ago/14
out/14
dez/14
fev/15
abr/15
jun/15
ago/15
out/15
dez/15
COMMODITIES EXPORTS (% TOTAL EXPORTS)
71%
‹n
37
‹n
º›
71.2%
69%
67.6%
67%
63%
61%
59.7%
57%
FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO
59.8%
70.7%
68.7%
68.7%
65.7%
37
67.6%
68.5%
66.9%
65%
62.7%
60.8%
61.2%
59%
55.2%
58.1%
55%
53%
54.6%
‹n
38
‹n
º›
FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO
Japan
12/2015
Italy
07/2015
USA
02/2015
Germany
09/2014
China
04/2014
Argentina
11/2013
06/2013
01/2013
08/2012
03/2012
10/2011
05/2011
25%
12/2010
07/2010
02/2010
09/2009
04/2009
11/2008
06/2008
01/2008
08/2007
03/2007
10/2006
05/2006
12/2005
07/2005
02/2005
09/2004
04/2004
11/2003
06/2003
01/2003
08/2002
03/2002
10/2001
05/2001
12/2000
BRAZILIAN EXPORTS - % MAIN PARTNERS
30%
20%
18.2%
15%
12.7%
10%
5%
6.7%
2.8%
2.6%
0%
1.7%
‹n
39
‹n
º›
FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO
USA
12/2015
Japan
07/2015
Italy
02/2015
Germany
09/2014
China
04/2014
Argentina
11/2013
06/2013
01/2013
08/2012
03/2012
10/2011
05/2011
20%
12/2010
07/2010
02/2010
09/2009
04/2009
11/2008
06/2008
01/2008
08/2007
03/2007
10/2006
05/2006
12/2005
07/2005
02/2005
09/2004
04/2004
11/2003
06/2003
01/2003
08/2002
03/2002
10/2001
05/2001
12/2000
BRAZILIAN IMPORTS - % MAIN PARTNERS
25%
17.7%
15%
15.5%
10%
6.1%
6.0%
5%
2.8%
2.7%
0%
BRAZILIAN EXPORTS - % MAIN PRODUCTS (2015)
13.3%
7.5%
36.2%
6.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.9%
2.3%
‹n
40 FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO
‹n
º›
Soybean
Iron Ore
Crude oil
Chicken
Soybean meal
Coffee Beans
Beef
Corn
Tobacco in leaves
Copper ores
Pork
Cotton
Sugar unrefined
Pulp
Semi products: iron and steel
Alloy iron
Leather
Gold
Soybean: oil
Airplanes
Vehicles
Aluminum
Auto parts
Flat Rolled
Plastic
Sugar refined
Others
FONTE: FMI
NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO PETRÓLEO BRENT
OIL
PRICES (US$/BARREL)
ELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO:
(NOMINAL, FOB
REINO UNIDO) - US$/BARRIL
BRADESCO
120
112.0
110
98.9
97.7
100
90
79.6
80
72.7
70
65.4
60
61.9
54.4
53.7
50
41.0
38.3
40 37.9
33.4
29.8
30
23.7
18.4
18.2
15.0
14.4
20
28.9
28.3
27.6
19.4
24.4
20.5 19.1
17.7
12.7
15.8
10
‹n
41
‹n
º›
FONTE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
2016 (p)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0
IRON ORE PRICES (US$/TON)
FONTE: FMI
ELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO
NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO (PREÇO SPOT NO PORTO DE TIANJIN/CHINA, MINÉRIO COM
62% DE TEOR DE FERRO) - US$/TONELADA
180
168
160
147
135
140
129
120
97
100
80
80
62
56
12
13
13
14
16
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
20
28
33
37
2007
40
2006
60
41
‹n
42
‹n
º›
FONTE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
2016 (p)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2005
0
SOYBEAN PRICES (US$/BUSHEL)
16
14.6
14.1
14
13.2
12.5
12.3
12
10.3
10.5
10
9.5
8.6
5.0
6.1
5.9
2006
6.3
2005
7.5
8
6
9.0
5.1
4.6
4
2
‹n
43
‹n
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FONTE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
2016 (p)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AS % OF GDP
19,000
13,98513,643
11,679
4,177
1,551
10,000
1,000
-1,0%
PIB
-8,000 -1,811
-7,637
-17,000
-26,000
-35,000
-18,384
-23,215
-23,502
-25,335
-24,225
-30,452
-33,416
-15,719
-21,550 -23,187
-24,302
-28,192
-44,000
-47,273
-52,480
-54,283
-53,000
-62,000
-1,3%
PIB
-3,2%
PIB
-58,920
-71,000
-80,000
-81,379
-89,000
-98,000
-107,000
-103,598
‹n
44
‹n
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FONTE: BC, BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-116,000
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (USD MILLION)
100,000
96,851
80,000
75,064
63,240
62,000
59,000
66,660 65,272 63,996
60,000
48,506
45,058
40,000
34,585
32,779
28,856 28,578
25,949
22,457
18,822
18,146
15,066
10,144
20,000
16,590
‹n
45
‹n
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FONTE: BC, BRADESCO
2018*
2017*
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW

























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46
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1º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER SUGAR
1º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER COFFEE
1º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER ORANGE JUICE
1º PRODUCER REGIONAL JETS
2º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER SOYBENS
2º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER CATTLE MEAT
2º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER TOBACCO
2º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER ALCOHOL
2º EXPORTER FOODS
2º PRODUCER AND 2º EXPORTER IRON ORE
3º PRODUCER AND 1º EXPORTER POULTRY MEAT
3º PRODUCER AND 2º EXPORTER CORN
3º ELETRIC POWER
3º CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTER
3º PRODUCER FRUITS
3º PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
3º INTERNET USERS
3º PRODUCER BUSES
3º PRODUCER FOOTWEAR
3º CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICS
3º PRODUCER BAUXITE
4º PRODUCER AND 4º EXPORTER PORK MEAT
4º PRODUCER BEVERAGES
4º PRODUCER MILK
4º PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS























4º PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRY
4º PRODUCER PULP
4º PRODUCER TRUCKS
4º CONSUMER MOBILE PHONES
4º ROAD NETWORK EXTENSION
4º PRODUCER CLOTING
5º PRODUCER AND 4º EXPORTER COTTON
5º PRODUCER AND 7º EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONES
5º PRODUCER TEXTILE
5º PRODUCER COCOA
5º PRODUCER CEMENT
6º PRODUCER FHARMACEUTICAL
6º PRODUCER CHEMICAL
7º CONSUMER MAKET
7º PRODUCER RICE
7º PRODUCER AND 4º SALES CARS
8º PRODUCER ALUMINIUM
9º PRODUCER STEEL
5º PRODUCER PAPER
11º PRODUCER HONEY
13º PRODUCER OIL
15º WIND ENERGY
15º PRODUCER WHEAT
AGENDA NECESSARY TO INCREASE POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH
FISCAL GOVERNANCE AND
EXPENDITURE EFFICIENCY
PRODUCTIVITY (DOING BUSINESS, TAX
REFORM, LABOR REFORM,
EDUCATION, TRADE OPENNESS)
‹n
47
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INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS
OF MONETARY POLICY
INFRASTRUCTURE
WWW.ECONOMIAEMDIA.COM.BR
DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and
projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not
be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or
informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed
exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this
information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage.
The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the
authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned.
‹n
48
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Update: 4th March, 2016