Dr. Arno Wilfert, PricewaterhouseCoopers - Hessen-IT

TK Dialog Hessen
Status und Perspektiven der Telekommunikationsmärkte aus Sicht von Investoren
02. Dezember 2009
Strictly Private and Confidential
Transactions
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Vorstellung
Dr. Arno Wilfert – Partner, PwC Strategy, Frankfurt / Düsseldorf
15 years
strategy
advisory experience
principally
focused
•Over
Studium
der
Volkswirtschaftslehre
und
Promotion
zumonDr. rer.
telecoms
pol. an industry
der Universität Bayreuth
Arno has led numerous commercial due diligence and strategy projects
• Über 17 Jahre Erfahrung in der Strategie- und Transaktionsincluding:
beratung mit Fokus auf die TMT Industrien
• Seit Mai 2007 Partner und Leiter der TS Strategy Group bei
PricewaterhouseCoopers; Ankerprodukte dort sind
Commercial Due Diligence, Business Reviews, Marktstudien
und Strategieentwicklung
Marie-Curie-Str. 24–28
60439 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 69 9585-6289
Fax:
+49 69 9585-3335
Mobile: +49 151 14015795
[email protected]
• Davor Partner und Leiter der TIME Practice bei Arthur D. Little
für die Region Central and Eastern Europe (incl. Deutschland,
Schweiz, Österreich und Osteuropa)
• Vielfältige Projekterfahrung durch Projekte für TMT
Unternehmen und deren Finanziers in ganz Europa mit
Schwerpunkt auf Mobilfnknetzbetreiber, Festnetzbetreiber,
Kabelfernsehunternehmen, PayTV-Anbieter, Medienhäuser,
Softwareunternehmen und Halbleiterhersteller
PwC Transaction Services unterstützt Investoren und Finanziers
mit Due Diligence Dienstleistungen
Core Offering:
Integrated Due Diligence Services
PwC Transaction Services
Transaction Services
Team
Profound deal
experience
Unique capabilities
Sector expertise, in
particular Telecoms
•
•
•
• Over 200 dedicated TS
professionals in Germany
• Around 40 experts focused on
Strategy and Operations
Financial
due diligence
• TS Germany involved in more
than 100 due diligences in the
last three years
Consistent
results
Consistent
• PwC provides integrated due
diligence expertise
• Client benefits: Consistent
results, reduced coordination
efforts
• Strategy and Operations experts
with clear industry focus
• Dedicated telecoms team with
profound experience
P&L account
Balance sheet
Cash flows
Operational
items
results
Commercial
items
Business
due diligence
•
•
•
•
Technology
Cost structure
Key process Capabilities
Capex
•
•
•
•
•
Macro trends
Pricing
Market shares
Volumes
Product technology
Agenda
Page
1 Einführung
1
2 Markttrends
4
3 Breitbandausbau in Deutschland
17
4 Investorenperspektive
22
Section 1
Einführung
Transactions
Section 1 - Einführung
Die Konvergenz vormals separater Teilmärkte bietet neue Chancen für alle Marktteilnehmer, bedroht aber auch etablierte Geschäftsmodelle
Fixed
Comments
Mobile
1
3
Fixed enters
TV market
(IPTV)
Fixed enters
mobile voice
market
Mobile enters
fixed voice &
broadband
market
2
Mobile tried to
enter TV
market
(DVB-H)
Mobile operators challenge fixed operators’ voice
and broadband market; and fixed operators fight
back via mobile offerings or MVNOs.
4
IP and hardware players force fixed and mobile
operator in a bitpipe role by positioning the VAS
value chain and attacking telecoms with core
communication services.
5
Mobile operators try to step into the TV market.
6
IP based TV, VoD and videoclip platforms attack
traditional TV business as they tend to reduce the
consumption time of traditional TV.
4
1
5
IP platforms
enter fixed &
mobile home
turf xxxxx
TV biased companies
enter fixed voice &
broadband market
6
Cable / TV
Hardware
players
cover
VAS
IP platforms
attack
traditional TV
IP & Media
Source: PwC Analysis
2
Fixed operators enter cable operators’ home turf
by offering IPTV.
3
4
2
Cable operators challenge fixed operators’ voice
and broadband market.
Market convergence offers new opportunities for all players, but many traditional
business models will be challenged
Section 1 - Einführung
Das Umsatzvolumen auf dem deutschen Telekommunikationsmarkt beträgt rund 60m€
TMT market size
Telecoms
€bn
70.0
Ʃ63.2
Media
Ʃ60.6
-4.1%
70.0
26.4
25.6
0.0%
Ʃ47.6
40.0
30.0
30.0
20.0
36.8
35.0
1.6
1.8
2.4
2.6
3.6
4.4
4.5
7.7
7.9
2007
2008
Fix
Mobile
Ʃ64.9
3.4%
15.0
14.3
9.6
9.6
40.0
19.1
19.3
20.0
31.3
33.0
2007
2008
10.0
14.1
13.7
2007
2008
-
Advertising
New spaper
Movie
Books
Magazines
Videogames
TV
Radio
Music
IT Services
IT Hardw are
Today’s focus
Source: Dialog Consult, PwC Analysis
Ʃ67.1
30.0
-
-
70.0
50.0
1.7
1.6
2.4
2.7
3.7
10.0
10.0
€bn
60.0
50.0
40.0
20.0
Ʃ47.6
60.0
60.0
50.0
€bn
Technology
Source: PwC Analysis
Source: EITO, Bitkom, PwC Analysis
3
Softw are
Section 2
Markttrends
Transactions
Section 2 - Markttrends
Der deutsche Telekommunikationsmarkt schrumpft seit 2005 – wir
befinden uns nicht mehr in einem Wachstumsmarkt!
German telecoms market value (€bn)
70.0
Ʃ45.2
Ʃ64.2
Ʃ66.6
Ʃ66.1
Ʃ63.2
Ʃ60.7
CAGR
’99-’05 ’05-’08
Ʃ57.8
• Since 2006 fixed broadband revenue
growth does not compensate losses in
the voice segment.
-13.2%
60.0
26.6
50.0
28.1
27.8
2.6%
26.4
-2.9%
25.4
23.6
40.0
Fixed market
• Fixed broadband revenue growth is
expected to slow down due to a decline
in net adds and ARPU.
Mobile market
12.2
30.0
20.0
37.6
38.5
38.3
33.0
14.9%
36.8
35.3
34.2
-3.3
• The decline from 2006 onwards has
been triggered by price decreases
caused by the emergence of no frills
operators and the reduction of
termination fees. Growth in minutes of
usage (MoU) did not compensate this
decline.
• Mobile data revenues are growing but
could not compensate the decline in
traditional voice and SMS revenues.
10.0
1999
…
2004
2005
Fix
2006
2007
2008
FC2009
Mobile
Source: VATM, Diolog Consult, PwC Analysis
5
Das schrumpfende Marktvolumen ist
im wesentlichen auf Preiswettbewerb
und neue Tarifmodelle zurückzuführen.
Die Wirtschaftskrise hat kaum Einfluss
auf die Umsätze mit
Telekommunikationsdiensten.
Section 2 - Markttrends
Das Wachstum im Breitbandmarkt lässt nach – die Kundenbasis
wächst langsamer und gleichzeitig sinken die ARPUs
Broadband connections – Net adds (m)
5.0
4.5
Broadband ARPU* (€)
40.0
4.6
4.5
35.0
4.0
33.4
33.0
29.4
3.7
30.0
3.5
25.0
3.1
22.7
25.0
3.0
21.5
21.3
FC2009
FC2010
2.5
2.5
20.0
2.2
2.0
15.0
1.3
1.5
10.0
1.0
5.0
0.5
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
FC2009
FC2010
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
• EoY 2008 there have been 22.8 m broadband connections in
Germany resulting in a penetration rate (population) of 27.6%.
• Broadband ARPU has declined significantly between 2005
and 2008 driven by increasing retail competition.
• Penetration is expected to continue to grow.
• ARPU decline is expected to flatten out as operators have
limited remaining room for manoeuvre due to overall cost
situation. Focus on promotions and increase of bandwidth.
• European benchmarks show penetration rates of 39.2%
(Denmark) and 35.5% (Netherlands) which indicate some
room for additional growth in Germay.
Source: BNetzA, VATM, Merrill Lynch, PwC Analysis
Source: PwC Analysis
7
*excluding VAT and voice revenues. Broadband + voice ARPU Q3
2009 e.g. for Versatel was €32.7
Section 2 - Markttrends
Abnehmende Neukundenzuwächse setzen die Geschäftsmodelle
alternativer DSL Anbieter unter Druck
Broadband net adds (m)
5.0
Ʃ2.5
Ʃ3.7
4.5
Ʃ4.5
0.2
4.0
Ʃ4.6
Ʃ3.1
Ʃ2.2
Cable operators have significantly increased their
share of net adds especially between 2006 (4%) and
FC2009 (39%).
0.5
0.8
0.2
3.5

1.9
0.7
0.1
3.0
After having lost significant broadband net adds
market share to competitors between 2004 and 2006
(decline from 65% to 18% net adds market share
respectively), DTAG succeeded in winning back
market share from 2007 onwards.
0.9
2.5
0.1
0.1

2.0
3.5
1.5
0.9
1.6
1.6
2.8
2.2
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.2
2004
2005
2006
Alternative operators
Source: VATM, PwC Analysis
2007
DTAG
Cable
2008
FC2009
Other *

Historically the alternative operators (altnets and
resellers) have continuously increased their net add
share from 8% in 2002 to a peak level of 77% in
2006. However, in 2009 the net add share is
expected to decline to 9% only. This development is
primarily driven by the fact that alternative DSL
operator’s competitive position is increasingly
squeezed between DTAG’s strong sales
performance and the highly competitive cable
operator offerings. The business model of reselling
DTAG products seems to have lost sustainability as
margins became unattractive and operators migrated
about 1m DTAG resale customers to unbundling or
bitstream.
* Other comprises access technologies such as Powerline, Satellite and wireless broadband access
8
Section 2 - Markttrends
Mobile Datenumsätze zeigen starkes Wachstum getrieben von
der steigenden Penetration mit Smartphones und Datenkarten
Mobile operator’s data revenues* (€m)
Mobile ARPU (€)
2,000
90
1,800
80
1,600
70
1,400
60
1,200
50
1,000
64
40
800
600
30
400
20
200
10
-
44
16
16
16
ARPU avg.
Blackberry
iPhone
2004
2005
2006
T-Mobile
Vodafone
2007
eplus
2008
o2
ARPU avg.
• Mobile data revenues continue to grow.
• Mobile data ARPU is driven by smartphone users and laptop
dongles.
• O2 has above average mobile data revenues because of its initial
positioning as fixnet alternative, targeting especially mobile only
users. O2 started early in promoting mobile data (e.g. dongles for
laptops).
• Especially the iPhone (residential user driven) and the Blackberry
(business) users have a high incremental ARPU. T-Mobile reported
about 1.2m iPhone customers in 3Q09.
• eplus’ mobile data revenues are catching up, especially since the
hosted no frills operators are offering mobile data services.
Source: Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, PwC Analysis
Incremental ARPU
• Smartphone sales are expected to rise up to 60% in the next five
years from 30% in 3Q09 of device sales.
*includes messaging revenues
Source: PwC Analysis
9
Section 2 - Markttrends
Die Umsatzzuwächse durch mobile Datendienste reichen nicht
aus, um die Umsatzverluste im Sprachbereich zu kompensieren
Mobile service revenues, Germany (€bn)*
22
Voice
losses
Data
gains
(4,2)
4,1
• Although data revenues
show strong growth, they
have not been sufficient to
offset voice revenue losses.
20
(5,2)
4,5
18
(5,0)
4,9
• In future data revenue gains
might offset voice losses.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005
Voice
Source: Merrill Lynch, PwC Analysis
Data
2006
Voice
Data
2007
Voice
Data
*Note: Only the service revenues of the 4 mobile operators have been taken into account.
10
2008
Section 2 - Markttrends
Die Umsätze im Kerngeschäft der Netzbetreiber sinken …
Market
Trend
Market driver tree
Impact
Impact on
market value
Connections
Voice
Comment / Implication
• Fixed voice is
commodity.
Fixed voice is
• Ongoing fixed to
commodity. No value
mobile substitution.
increase in future
• No value increase
expected in future.
Minutes
Minutes
Fixed
Price / ARPU
Connections
Data /
Broadband
Decreasing market size
in combination with
increasing margin
pressure fuels
consolidation.
Growth potential is
• Declining revenue
declining; Price levels
growth.
can only be stabilized
• Traffic growth
with higher offered
increases costs.
bandwidth
Traffic
Price / ARPU
Market
value
• SIM card and MOU
increase does not
compensate price
decline.
• Pressure on mobile
termination rates.
• No value increase
expected in future.
Connections
Voice
Minutes
Minutes
Mobile
Price / ARPU
Connections
Data /
Broadband
• Continued growth in
data subs and usage
increase drives up
ARPU.
• Strong traffic growth
requires additional
CAPEX.
Traffic
Price / ARPU
Source: PwC Analysis
increasing
neutral
decreasing
negative
11
neutral
positive
To increase market
value telecom operators
need to tap
neighbouring markets.
Data revenue growth
does not compensate
for voice losses.
Section 2 - Markttrends
… deshalb versuchen sie Umsätze in benachbarten Märkten zu
generieren - waren damit aber bisher nur mäßig erfolgreich
Fixed
Selected telecom operator initiatives to enter neighbouring markets
Mobile
1999
Movie
Music
Social networks
TV
DTAG launches a VoD
download portal being
part of T-Online. In 2008
relaunch with the name
videoload . Claimed VOD
market share in 2008 of
about 39% which would
related to revenues of
about €3.5m.
DTAG launches download
portal musicload in 2003.
At present the portal
claims to have c. 3.8m
registered customers and
a name recognition of
80%.
DTAG launches the social
network xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
in 2005. The portal has
been closed down in 2007
after failure to attract
users.
DTAG launches IPTV
platform in 2006. Other
operators (Arcor,
Hansenet) followed.
DTAG’s roll out has been
scaled back initially due to
lower than expected
customer demand. DTAG
had about 885k
customers in 3Q09.
()
()
2001
2002

2003
2004
()
2005
2006
2007
2008
Mobile content
Mobile content
Mobile content
Mobile Payment
Mobile devices
Mobile TV
eplus launched i-Mode xx
a portal for mobile paid
content. The NTT
Docomo service was very
successful in terms of
subscribers and revenues
in Japan but it failed in
Germany.
T-Mobile launched
xxxxxxx a multimedia
portal for communication,
paid content and Internet
access. Designed for
GPRS and UMTS usage.
Revenue impact of this
walled-garden approach
to monetize mobile
content remained low.
Vodafone launched
xxxxxxxxxx to make
access to paid content
services easier using
WAP, SMS and MMS.
T-Mobile, Vodafone and
Orange formed an
alliance (MPSA, later
called simpay) to set up a
m-payment platform to
trigger m-commerce. The
association stopped
activities in 2005.
Mobile operators
designed and branded
devices aim to
differentiate from
competitors and to
become less dependent
from key suppliers.
Limited customer
acceptance only.
The approach to launch
DVB-H based Mobile TV
failed in Germany as the
licence holder failed to
secure partnerships.
Currently offered mobile
TV services (Vodafone, TMobile) have no mass
market appeal.






Source: Pwc Analysis
 successful
12
() partly successful

not successful
Section 2 - Markttrends
Benachbarte Märkte sind relativ klein und haben nicht genug
Potenzial, um Umsatzverluste im Kerngeschäft auszugleichen
Market sizes, Germany 2008 (€bn)
65.0
• The only substantial
neighbouring market is the
advertising market.
60.7
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
Ʃ12.9
20.0
15.0
10.0
0.8
0.7
4.0
Internet
Radio
TV
Print
3.4
5.0
1.6
1.6
7.4
Music
Movie
Advertising
Telecoms
Includes the fixed
market (€35bn)
and the mobile
market (€25.6bn).
TV
Includes Pay-TV
and TV access
charges (e.g.
cable). GEZ
revenues are not
included.
Includes digital
music and CD
sales.
Includes home
entertainment (sale
& rental of movies),
excludes cinema
revenues.
Source: VATM, PwC Analysis
13
Advertising
revenues from print
media, TV, radio and
Internet. Bill board
advertising revenues
are not included.
• However, IP players like
Google already have a
dominant position in the
Internet advertising
market and are expected
to increasingly draw
revenues from print, TV
and radio to the Internet
space.
• Chances for fixed and
mobile operators to
capture a substantial
share in the advertising
market seem to be limited.
Section 2 - Markttrends
Um die Profitabilität in schrumpfenden Märkten zu halten, müssen
die Netzbetreiber kontinuierlich ihre Effizienz steigern
Mobile operator’s EBITDA margin trend line
Fixed operator’s EBITDA trend line
50%
50%
45%
45%
40%
40%
35%
35%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
Vodafone
eplus
T-Home
United Internet
T-Mobile
o2
Versatel
QSC
• EBITDA margins for mobile operators show a declining trend.
• Fixed EBITDA margins are on average below mobile operator
level.
• Historically the largest mobile operators (Vodafone, T-Mobile) had a
significantly higher EBITDA margin than the smaller operators due to
economies of scale. While Vodafone still shows the highest EBITDA
margin, T-Mobile’s EBITDA margin shows the strongest decline between
2004 and 2008.
• The fixed operator’s EBITDA margin trend lines show a moderate
improvement over time with exception for T-Home.
• T-Home’s EBITDA margin continues to decline but from a relatively
high level.
• eplus has a positive EBITDA margin trend due to a strong increase in
sales driven by the success of several hosted no frills operators such as
AldiTalk and simyo.
Source: Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, company websites, PwC Analysis
14
Section 2 - Markttrends
Steigende Bandbreiten und stark wachsende Verkehrsvolumina
stellen eine Herausforderung für Festnetzanbieter dar
Bandwidth distribution of DSL
connections
Fixed broadband traffic volume
(m GByte)
(m)
3,300
3,500
Maximum bandwidth offered by
operators
(Mbit/s.)
140
25.0
0.2
1.6
3,000
120
120
20.0
100
2,500
9.8
15.0
2,000
80
x4.9
1,500
1,000
10.0
60
2.1
680
8.4
5.0
500
-
8.4
FC2009
Historical very strong (factor 4.9) increase of the
German broadband traffic volume between 2005 and
2009 is expected to continue in future which drives up
operator’s network costs.
40
20
2.1
2005
50
2005
< 2 Mbit/s
6 Mbit/s < 16 Mbit/s
>50 Mbit/s
FC2009
2 Mbit/s < 6 Mbit/s
16 Mbit/s < 50 Mbit/s
Strong upward movement of broadband customers to
broadband connections with higher bandwidth.
Fixed
Cable
Cable operators put pressure on fixed operators by
offering superior bandwidth connections at very
competitive prices. Unitymedia took the lead with 120
Mbit/s, followed by KBW with a 100 Mbit/s offering.
Despite the fact that there is currently no use case or application which would require a higher bandwidth than 25 Mbit/s
there is an increasing rationale for fixed operators not to invest anymore in legacy DSL infrastructure but to roll out FTTx
infrastructure to reduce OPEX, compete with cable offerings and to prepare for future bandwidth requirements.
Source: BNetzA, VATM, PwC Analysis
15
Section 2 - Markttrends
Stark steigende Verkehrsmengen und die Einführung von LTE
führen zu zusätzlichem Investitionsbedarf im Mobilfunk
YoY growth in mobile data traffic
Expected LTE launches
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
Telenor / Sweden
200.0
100.0
Bulk of Western
European
operators
Orange/ France, UK,
Spain
Tele2 / Sweden
x1.7
x2.0
X2.8
X3.8
x5.5
Elisa (Finland)
Tele2 (Sw eden)
T-Mobile
Telia Sonera
(Nordics)
Orange (France)
-
• Mobile operators face a significant yoy increase in mobile data traffic.
TeliaSonera / Nordics
?
2010
2011
2012
• CAPEX are i.e. driven by roll out speed, geographical and indoor coverage. In this
respect the CAPEX implications vary by the market positioning of the respective
player (role of LTE in the positioning strategy).
• However, HSPA networks are expected to cope this traffic volume growth as the
network capacity seems to be upward scalable without significant efforts.
• T-Mobile reported that the capacity of its networks can be increased by factor 10
with an increase of HSPA base stations just by a factor of 2.
• The average traffic per month differs significantly between different user types
 Standard 3G device user:
10 - 20 MByte/month
 Blackberry user:
25 MByte/month
 Smartphone user:
50 MByte/month
 iPhone user:
200 - 250 MByte/month
 Residential dongle user:
800 MByte/month
2012+
Key LTE
benefits
against
HSPA
• The strong data traffic growth will trigger an upgrade of the mobile base station
backbone as these have in many cases only a 2-4 Mbit/s connection.
Source: Exane, Credit Suisse, PwC Analysis
16
• Faster speed (35 Mbit/s real throughput vs 6 Mbit/s)
• Better spectral efficiency than HSPA
• Lower latency (20ms vs. 60-80ms)
• Full IP network architecture
Section 2 - Markttrends
Das benötigte Investitionsvolumen zur Aufrüstung der Netze ist
unklar – vor allem die Investitionen im Mobilfunk dürften geringer
ausfallen als erwartet
Required FTTx CAPEX
Estimation - low end*
Required LTE CAPEX per mobile operator
Estimation - high end*
Connection of 75% of the households with a broadband speed of about 50Mbit/s.
€40bn
Best case
Medium case
Worst case
MNO uses already Flexi
BTS, i.e. only software
update required
HSPA upgrade partly
done
Current share of HSPA
infrastructure limited; high
LTE coverage planned
CAPEX
corridor
€30bn
€1.7bn
€1.3bn
€0.5bn
• No immediate (urgent) upgrade to LTE is required as HSPA networks capacity is
in most cases not fully used or can be increased without significant CAPEX.
• Reported CAPEX estimations vary significantly in the market as there are multiple
drivers which have a significant impact on the overall CAPEX level such as
• Level of LTE investment on top of the latest HSPA release seems limited as it
seems to be primarily a software upgrade.
- urban vs. rural roll-out
- single vs. multiple investor case
• It seems more favourable to stretch the LTE investment over time as a sufficient
and cheap supply of LTE devices is not available yet.
- technology type (VDSL, PON, P2P)
- single houses vs. multi dwelling units, etc.
Source: WIK, PwC Analysis
• CAPEX might be financed from mobile operator’s cash flow.
*T-Home CEO (Niek Jan van Damme), 19.Oct09
Source: PwC Estimates
17
Section 3
Breitbandausbau in Deutschland
Transactions
Section 3 - Breitbandausbau in Deutschland
Die Breitbandpenetration ist in Deutschland in den letzten Jahren
stark angestiegen und läuft nun in die Sättigungsphase
Broadband infrastructure Germany 2009
Broadband penetration Germany 2005-2010
Total households: 38,2m
PwC-Prognose
Percentage of households
80,0%
69,0%
70,0%
62,8%
56,4%
60,0%
49,3%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
No broadband;
1,9 ; 5%
EU-27
DSL only; 10,3 ;
27%
37,7%
27,6%
20,0%
10,0%
DSL+Cable; 26,0
; 68%
0,0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
• Die Breitbandpenetration ist vor allem in den Jahren 2006 und
2007 rasch angestiegen
• Sog. “Weisse Flecken” sind nach wie vor vorhanden; betreffen aber vom Volumen her nur einen relativ kleinen Teil der
Bevölkerung
• In diesem Jahr dürfte es nur noch ca. 2-2,5m Neuanschlüsse
geben; der Markt erreicht die Sättigungsphase und wird nur
noch langsam wachsen
• Versorgung von “weißen Flecken” rechnet sich oft auch über
Funktechnologien nicht (siehe WiMax-Debakel); Ausbau
muss hier ggf. Subventioniert werden
• Mehr Eigeninitiative der Kommunen und mehr Kreativität bei
der Entwicklung neuer Geschäfstmodelle gefragt
Source: PwC, LBBW
19
Section 3 - Breitbandausbau in Deutschland
Glasfaser spielt in Deutschland derzeit keine Rolle – einen
Standortnachteil kann man daraus jedoch (noch) nicht ableiten
Top 15 Global Fiber Countries (June 2009)
DSL connections per bandwidth type in Germany
100%
Of total broadband households
South Korea
Japan
Hong Kong
Taiw an
Sw eden
Denmark
USA
Norw ay
Slovenia
Singapore
0,9%
7,2%
90%
über 50 Mbps.
80%
70%
44,3%
16 bis unter 50 Mbps
60%
6 bis unter 16 Mbps
50%
40%
30%
38,0%
2 bis unter 6 Mbps
20%
unter 2 Mbps
10%
0%
9,6%
Andorra
Iceland
Lithuania
Slovakia
• In Deutschland werden vergleichsweise hohe Geschwindigkeiten über DSL erreicht
• Es gibt derzeit keine Anwendungen und kaum
Zahlungsbereitschaft für Anschlüsse übr 16 Mbps
• Die Bottlenecks liegen häfig nicht im Accesbereich
Netherlands
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Household Penetration
FTTH
FTTB
Source: VATM, FTTH Council, Ovum
20
Section 3 - Breitbandausbau in Deutschland
Derzeit gibt es (noch) keine Anwendungen, die einen Glasfaserausbau für den Massenmarkt zwingend erforderlich machen
Maximum download and upload speed per technology
in MBit/s
Average required bandwidth 2009 vs. 2020
45
41
40
2
1
4
35
Webradio
VoIP
1
Gaming
in MBit/s
30
5
25
23
20
1
1
0
1
2
15
10
1
0
1
10
10
0
0
10 0
1
0
9
9
2020
2009
5
2009
Einpersonenhaushalt
2020
DreipersonenHaushalt
2009
12 1
UMTS
ADSL 2
25
1
ADSL
2+
50
11
27
VDSL
Kabel
108
VDSL2 DOCSIS
3.0
Glasfaser
Upload speed
• Sehr hohe Bandbreiten werden erst bei der simultanen
Übertragung mehrerer HDTV-Fernsehkanäle erforderlich
• IPTV hat aber derzeit noch einen geringen Marktanteil an den
TV-Plattformen
• Alle übrigen Dienste können mit vorhandenen Technologien
abgedckt werden
• Schwäche der heutigen Technologien liegt vor allem in
limitierter Uploadgeschwindigkeit
• Aber: Übergang zu Glasfaser wird kommen und im Zuge der
Umrüstung auf Next Generation Networks Kupfer ablösen
IPTV / HDTV
27
14
0
7 6
52
Brow sing &
Email
18
1
1
1
0
1
160
100
Dow nload speed
18
5
5
P2P
Filesharing
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
2020
Fünfpersonenhaushalt
Source: PwC, Capgemini
21
Section 3 - Breitbandausbau in Deutschland
Bei der aktuellen Diskussion um den Breitbandausbau wird meist
die Stimulierung der Nachfrageseite vergessen
Deutschland im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern
E-Government
Teleworking
Teleworking in Europe
Finland
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
Denmark
United Kingdo m
Germany
Italy
Ireland
France
Spain
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Teleworker penetration of workforce
Source: PwC;, Capgemini,et. al., European Commission
• Die öffentliche Hand kann die Nachfrage nach Breitbandanschlüssen durch vielfältige – auch nichtfiskalische – Massnahmen stimulieren
• Die viel gepriesenen Produktivitätszuwächse durch den Breitbandausbau werden nicht durch die
Bereitstellung von HDTV-Kanälen über IPTV erreicht werden!
22
Section 4
Investorenperspektive
Transactions
Section 4 - Investorenperspektive
Aus Investorensicht ergeben sich vielfältige Möglichkeiten vom
Wandel des Telekommunikationsmarktes zu profitieren
Investitionsmöglichkeiten
Themen
O-1
Marktkonsolidietrung
Recent examples
Telefonica’s acquisition of Hansenet.
Versatel’s acquisition of level 4 cable operators
AKF Telekabel and Media Home Net.
Comments
Probability
Timing
expected
Market consolidation is likely to occur between DSL
operators, cable operators and between DSL and
cable operators.
2010
A portfolio adjustment like it has been observed
with Freenet might be exercised by other operators
too.
2011
Exits of PE houses from cable investments are at
the horizon. Due to high debt an IPO seems more
likely than a sale.
2010
O-2
Portfolioanpassungen
Freenet: sale of DSL busines.
Freenet: sale of Webhosting business (ongoing).
O-3
Börsengänge
Infrastructure
O-4
Network
Sharing
T-Mobile UK, 3 UK
Telenor, Tele2
Telefonica, Vodafone
Sharing of existing mobile network infrastructure
and a joint set-up of new fixed and mobile networks
will become common sense.
2010/11
T-Mobile UK, 3 UK
Outsourcing
BT Openreach, Carillion
To realize required cost savings large outsourcing
deals are coming increasingly on the agenda.
2011
Sprint, Ericsson
high
24
medium-high
medium
medium - low
low