Flexible Development of Airports Where we stand now?

2012
Flexible Development of Airports
Where we stand now?
Liliana Magalhães, Vasco Reis, Rosário Macário
Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal
AIRDEV Conference
Lisbon, 19th April 2012
1
The need for flexibility
Financial and Economic woes
Volatility of Airport Traffic
Technology Developments
Uncertainty in Demand
Forecasts
Master Plans perform poorly
Airports should be embedded
with Flexibility
2
The need for flexibility
“airport planning paradigm is shifting from the traditional
pattern (high standards, established customers and long-term
forecast), to that of recognizing great uncertainty at forecasts,
broad range standards and potential for a rapidly changing
customer’s base.”
(de Neufville, 2008)
“airports should be adaptable and capable to perform any
required function inside their areas. The ones which are not
able to deal with uncertainty in a flexible way face significant
risks in terms of overbuilding, underbuilding, mismatches
between demand and supply, higher unit costs or losses.”
(Burghouwt, 2007)
3
Where we stand now?
• There is no universal concept and only few authors
present their own definition of it
• Flexibility has been studied only by few authors and
not widely explored
• Airport flexibility has been studied at different levels
(multiairport systems, master plan, airport terminals)
4
Where we stand now?
LEVELS OF FLEXIBILITY
Components
AUTHORS
Matthew Butters (2010)
Nuno Gil and Bruce Tether (2011)
Richard de Neufville (2008)
Building Design
Richard de Neufville, Steven Belin (2002)
Matthew Butters (2010)
Nuno Gil and Bruce Tether (2011)
Richard de Neufville (2008)
Space Design
Matthew Butters (2010)
Guillaume Burghouwt (2007)
(airport limits)
J.H. Kwakkel ,Warren Walker and Vincent Marchau (2010)
Nuno Gil and Bruce Tether (2011)
Guillaume Burghouwt (2007)
Master Plan
J.H. Kwakkel ,Warren Walker and Vincent Marchau (2010)
Matthew Butters (2010)
Multiairports
Philippe Bonnefoy, Richard de Neufville, John Hansman (2010)
5
Where we stand now?
• Few authors present a definition of the concept
• Research on airport flexibility is scattered among research
centres - with few interactions or cross- fertilization
• Concept seems to be scalable – yet, no studies on this so far
• Flexibility is always seen as positive – but can we apply
flexibility in every case?
• Most studies use a conceptual approach – few quantitative
assessment tools and methods
• Lacking of theoretical body - absence of a characterization of
the fundamental variables of flexibility and the causal
relationships
6
New framework for flexible development of
airports
Objective:
Surpass one of the identified gaps - absence of a
theoretical body on the mechanisms of flexibility
explaining the causal relationships between the levels of
flexibility and the performance indicators.
Starting point:
Levels of flexibility defined: master plan, space design,
building design and components (inspired by Butters
2010)
7
New framework for flexible development of
airports
Exogenous
variables
/Constraints
levels of flexibility
Master Plan
Space Design
(airport limits)
Demand
Building Design
Components
Regulation
Process
Airport Operations
Technology
Process
0000
Process
Financing
8
Conclusions
• Flexibility can increase the competitiveness of the airport in
current economic turmoil
• Flexibility can be embedded at different levels
• Lacking methods and tools to asses the benefits of Flexibility
– actual benefits of Flexibility remain unknown
• Benefits of Flexibility are function on the level at which it is
embedded, airport’s processes and external factors
• Future steps: development of simulation model to assess
the benefits of flexibility
9
2012
Flexible Development of Airports
Where we stand now?
Liliana Magalhães
[email protected]
Vasco Reis
[email protected]
Rosário Macário
[email protected]
10