Relatório de Análise SNSL3 - Fator - Atualização

Equity Research
TMT
May 14, 2014
SENIOR SOLUTION | EQUAL WEIGHT
1Q14 EARNINGS REVIEW
RESEARCH ANALYSTS
Yannick Bergamo
Improving results, long term still uncertain
+55 11 3049-6218
[email protected]
Strong Net Revenue Growth, Margins Recovery Continuity
Samuel Torres
Senior Solution presented another good quarter after recovering from the
loss of major clients in the end of 2012 beginning of 2013. Net revenue
reached BRL 16.6 million, growing 72.2% y/y (33.9% organically, excluding
Drive) while EBITDA margin came at 13.7%, representing a 10.8 p.p
increase vis-à-vis 1Q13.
+55 11 3049-6147
[email protected]
Short term non recurrent revenue boost
Services and Consulting presented a respectable result this quarter,
growing, respectively, 31.3% and 147.7% y/y. However, this hike was
partially heightened by the weak comparison base and by revenue coming
from timely projects (Midway’s contract and Central Bank’s 4,282 Resolution
projects) which should be concluded by the end of the year.
Software Concerns
Company x Ibovespa
120
105
90
75
May-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
IBOVESPA
Mar-14
60
May-14
SNSL3
Company Data
Ticker
Even though Software’s net revenue posted a 10.5% y/y
this was due to an increase in average ticket since, once
of clients declined. Our concern is diminished
implementation of Senior Solution’s software in two
recorded in the services revenue.
EQUAL WEIGHT reiterated
Overall we find the results positive, since the company has shown consistent
signs of improvement. On the other hand, since we are still concerned about
the sustainability of non-recurrent revenues in the long term and the lack of
organic client additions, we reiterate our EQUAL WEIGHT rating with a BRL
12.50 target price.
Estimates and Valuation
SNSL3
Current Price (13 May 14, BRL)
7.95
Target Price (BRL)
12.50
Market Cap (BRL million)
93.7
Consolidated P&L (BRL Million)
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Net Revenues
51.2
66.1
74.1
81.9
5.1
10.0
12.5
14.4
10.0%
15.1%
16.8%
17.6%
5.3
8.0
9.4
10.8
Multiples
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
P/E
17.6x
11.7x
9.9x
8.6x
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
6.6x
5.3x
4.6x
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Debt (BRL million)
growth (ex-Drive),
again, the number
by the ongoing
major banks, as
Net Income
(28.0)
Enterprise Value (BRL million)
65.7
ADTV (BRL million)
0.1
Important disclosures are contained on page 3 of this research report
Equity Research
May 14, 2014
Senior Solution | 1Q14 Earnings Review
Key Financials
1Q14
1Q13
1Q14/
1Q13
4Q13
1Q14/
4Q13
Net Revenue
16.7
9.6
72.7%
15.5
7.5%
Software
4.4
4.0
10.5%
4.5
-0.8%
Service
2.4
1.8
31.2%
2.0
19.5%
Outsourcing
4.7
3.3
43.8%
4.3
8.5%
Consulting
1.4
0.6
147.8%
0.8
75.4%
Drive
3.7
-
-
3.9
-4.5%
EBITDA
2.3
0.3
722.7%
2.2
4.2%
13.7%
2.9%
10.8 p.p.
14.2%
-3.0%
4.3
0.1
7361.4%
2.0
109.2%
25.5%
0.6%
24.9 p.p.
13.1%
94.7%
(BRL Million)
EBITDA Margin
Net Income
Net Income Margin
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FATOR S/A CORRETORA DE VALORES 2
Equity Research | Disclosures
Fator Corretora Recommendations - Criteria and Distribution
Distribution
Recommendation
Criteria
Quantity
Percentage
Overweight
Shares with expected return above the market return are eligible to be classified as Overweight rating
48
56.5
Equal Weight
Shares with expected return equal the market return are eligible to be classified as Equal Weight rating
20
23.5
Underweight
Shares with expected return below the market return are eligible to be classified as Underweight rating
2
2.4
Under Revision
15
17.6
Total
85
100.0
Important U.S. Disclosures
The security analyst(s) of the Equity Research Department of Fator S/A Corretora de Valores who prepared this report certify that:
(I) The views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the security analyst(s) about the security/securities and/or company that
are the subject of this report; and
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this report.
Fator Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, is a U.S. entity and a subsidiary of the Fator group of companies in Brazil. U.S persons seeking further
information in regard to the products or services offered in this institutional sales material must contact Fator Securities LLC in New York at (646) 2051160.
Fator S/A Corretora de Valores and/or the entities which belong to the same financial group as or are affiliated with Fator S/A Corretora de Valores
beneficially own 5% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies:
Cia Ferro Ligas Bahia Ferbasa; Jereissati Participações S/A; General Shopping Brasil S/A; Santos Brasil Participações S.A; Brazil Hospitality Group;
BrasilAgro; Log-in Logistica Intermodal S.A.; Desenvix Energias Renováveis S.A.; Eletrometrô S/A; Iochpe-Maxion S/A; Companhia Energética do CearáCoelce; Cia. Paulista de Securitização; Sonae Sierra Brasil S/A.
Within the past 12 months, Fator S/A Corretora de Valores and/or the entities which belong to the same financial group as Fator S/A Corretora de
Valores have managed or co-managed a public offering of the following securities:
Polo Capital Securitizadora S.A., RB Capital 5R Shopping Centers FII, CVC Brasil Operadora e Agência de Viagens S.A., Via Varejo S.A.
Within the past 12 months, Fator S/A Corretora de Valores and/or the entities which belong to the same financial group as Fator S/A Corretora de
Valores have received compensation for investment banking services from the following:
EMAE – Empresa Metropolitana de Águas e Energia S/A; Log-in Logística Intermodal, Alupar Investimentos S.A., Sonae Sierra do Brasil S.A., Companhia
Hidroelétrica do São Francisco
In the next three months, Fator S/A Corretora de Valores and/or the entities which belong to the same financial group as Fator S/A Corretora de
Valores expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following:
Inpar; Gafisa; JBS, Desenvix; Iguatemi; Iochpe Maxion; EMAE – Empresa Metropolitana de Águas
Investimentos S.A., Sonae Sierra do Brasil S.A., Companhia Hidroelétrica do São Francisco
e Energia S/A; Log-in Logística Intermodal, Alupar
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therefore, subject to revision. Past performances are not indicative of future results.
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FATOR S/A CORRETORA DE VALORES 3