Cream of the Crop - Vale Fertilizantes

(Outperform)
Fosfertil
PN
Agribusiness
Flash News
February 11, 2010
Ticker (local)
FFTL4
Fair Value (10)
R$26.2
Vale Acquires Mosaic’s
Stake in Fosfertil
Ticker (ADR)
n/a
Estimates and Valuation
Fair Value (10)
n/a
Years
2008a
2009e
2010e
2011e
2012e
2013e
Net revenues (R$m)
3,429
2,384
2,427
2,935
3,110
3,263
EBITDA (R$m)
1,453
-136
736
985
1,043
1,095
773
-124
363
457
427
405
-1,317
-160
-440
-80
206
407
EPS
1.8
-0.3
0.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
FCFE (R$m)
923
-831
322
-226
-172
-96
Net income (R$m)
Stock Data
Current price
R$
18.4
Upside (YE10)
%
42.7
52 Week high/low
R$
21.1/13.3
Share outstanding
th
422,473
Market capitalization
R$m
7,757
3-mth avg daily vol.
R$m
12.3
Performance (%)
1m
12m
Absolute
-3.6
23.2
Vs. Ibovespa
4.7
-13.4
Net debt (R$m)
EV/EBITDA
4.4
-55.9
9.9
7.8
7.6
7.5
P/E
10.0
-62.6
21.4
17.0
18.2
19.2
FCFE yield
11.9
-10.7
4.1
-2.9
-2.2
-1.2
DPS (R$)
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
Dividend yield
3.4
0.4
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.8
Source: Itaú Securities
Vale announced yesterday night that it has entered into an option
contract with Mosaic to buy Mosaic’s shares of Fertifos and Fosfertil. The
strike price of the option contract is US$1.03 billion, implying the very same price
per share (US$12.02) that Vale agreed to pay for BPI’s, Heringer’s, Fertipar’s and
Yara’s respective stakes in Fosfertil.
Taking Mosaic out of the way arguably opens room for a de-listing. But
the more we talk to the new controller or to the company directly, the
more we are convinced that the idea is to keep Fosfertil listed. We believe
Cream of the Crop
that Vale wants to turn Fosfertil into its fertilizer arm, which would operate as a
separate entity and, most importantly, finance its own growth. There is value for
Vale in keeping Fosfertil listed, as it could then access capital markets and/or be
used as currency in future acquisitions, which may ultimately translate into the
listing of Fosfertil under the Novo Mercado, in our view. Therefore, we
reiterate our outperform recommendation for Fosfertil, with a YE10 fair
value of R$26.2/FFTL4.
Additional Details
Vale will hold 78.90% of the equity capital of Fosfertil after concluding the
acquisition of the direct and indirect stakes of BPI, Heringer, Fertipar, Yara and
Paula Kovarsky, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3027
[email protected]
Giovana Araújo, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3036
[email protected]
Diego Mendes, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3029
[email protected]
Mosaic. This share in Fosfertil’s equity capital is composed of 99.81% common
shares and 68.24% preferred shares. The total price to be paid for the acquisition
of 78.90% of the equity capital of Fosfertil is US$4.01 billion.
Even becoming the sole controller of Fosfertil, Vale did not announce an
offer for the minorities’ PN shares. Rather, it simply announced a mandatory
offer to buy the remaining 0.19% of ON shares for the same price agreed on with
BPI, Heringer, Fertipar, Yara and Mosaic.
Vale has also agreed to acquire from Mosaic a superphosphate plant in
Cubatão, for US$50 million. The plant has a nominal annual capacity of
300,000 tons of single superphosphate (SSP).
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Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. is the securities arm of Itaú Unibanco Group. Itaú Securities is a brand name of Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Fosfertil – February 11, 2010
DISCLAIMER
Itaú Securities is a brand name of Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships (3)
Ratings
Definition
(1) (2)
Coverage
Banking
Relationship
(3)
(4)
Outperform
The analyst expects the stock to perform
better than the market average.
45%
32%
Market Perform
The analyst expects the stock to perform in
line with the market average.
43%
31%
Underperform
The analyst expects the stock to perform
below the market average.
12%
8%
1. Ratings reflect the analyst’s assessment of the stock price performance in the medium term compared
with the market average. Recommendations will be valid until the analyst changes the rating, which
may happen as a result of news or simply due to a change in the stock price (there is not a defined
time horizon).
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Telecommunications, Media and Technology, (viii) Transportation, Industrials and Logistics, (ix)
Utilities (x) Equity Strategy.
3. Percentage of companies under coverage by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. within this rating category.
The ratings used herein (Outperform, Market Perform and Underperform) for purposes of the ratings
distribution disclosure requirements of FINRA and the NYSE, correspond most closely, respectively, to
Buy, Hold and Sell.
4. Percentage of companies within this rating category for which Banco Itaú S.A. or any of its affiliated
companies provided investment banking services within the past 12 (twelve) months, or may provide
investment banking services during the next 3 (three) months.
Third Party Disclosures
Companies Mentioned
Fosfertil PN
Ticker
Recent Price
FFTL4
18.4
Disclosure Items
1
2
3
4
5
1. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering for
the companies analyzed in this report in the past 12 (twelve) months, for which they have received
compensation.
2. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking
services provided to the companies analyzed in this report in the past 12 (twelve) months, and expect
to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services provided to the companies
analyzed in this report in the next 3 (three) months.
3. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates were making a market in the companies analyzed in
this report at the time this report was issued.
4. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates have acted as an underwriter of securities issued by
the companies analyzed in this report within the past 5 (five) years.
5. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates, funds, portfolios and securities investment clubs
managed by Itaú Corretora beneficially own, directly or indirectly, 1% (one percent) or more of any
class of common equity securities issued by the companies analyzed in this report as of the end of the
last month.
25.0
30-Oct
22-Sep
30.0
18-Jan
Fosfertil PN
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Underperform
UR
Source: Itaú Securities
Itaú Securities
-2-
Jul-09
Sep-09
Market Perform
Stock Price
Nov-09
Jan-10
Outperform
Fair Value
Fosfertil – February 11, 2010
Relevant Information
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and distributed by Itaú Corretora or one of its affiliates (altogether, “Itaú Unibanco Group”).
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[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+81-3-3539-3847
+81-3-3539-3848
+81-3-3539-3849
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fixed Income
Alexandre Aoude, Global Head of Fixed Income
Fixed Income Research
Ciro Matuo, CNPI - Sector Head
Boanerges Pereira, CNPI
Sérgio Vailati, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3049
+55-11-3073-3050
+55-11-3073-3067
Sales - Latin America
Luis Fernando Guido
Andre Farkas
Mauricio Silveira
Rogério Cunha
Valter Luz
Felipe Almeida
Vinicius Pinho
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8610
Sales - North America
[email protected] Douglas Chen
[email protected] Mario Bonilla
[email protected] Richard Cascais
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Alternative Investment Products
São Paulo
Marcelo Fatio - Head
Lizandro Arnoni
New York
Thomas DeCoene - Head
Alex Mainero
Roger Freitas
London
Mark Fenton - Head
Julia Chen
Raquel Franco
Pedro Rafael
+55-11-3073-3505
+55-11-3073-3584
+1-212-710-6702
+1-212-710-6731
+1-212-710-6778
+44-20-7663-7845
+44 207 663 7842
+44-207-663-7838
+44-207-663-7841
Dubai
[email protected] Adriano Cantreva - Head
[email protected] Ellie Shaw
Hong Kong
[email protected] Jack Xu - Head
[email protected] Caio Galvão
[email protected] Charles Lin
Eduardo Bernardes
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Tokyo
Kenichi Noguchi - Head
Hiroyuki Shimizu
Hiromi Wada
Itaú Securities' Global Offices
SÃO PAULO
Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A
Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3400 - 9º Andar
São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-132
NEW YORK
Itaú USA Securities Inc.
540 Madison Avenue, 23rd floor
New York - NY 10022
LONDON
Itaú UK Securities Ltd.
6th Floor - 17 Dominion Street
London EC2M 2EF
HONG KONG
Itaú Asia Securities
TOKYO
Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch
NBF Hibiya Bldg. 5F
1-1-7 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan
DUBAI
Itaú Middle-East Securities
Sheikh Zayed Road,
Park Place Building,10th floor
P.O.Box 65073 Dubai U.A.E
Regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong
29/F, Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street - Central, Hong Kong
Itaú´s Complaints Officer (Ouvidoria Corporativa Itaú) may be contacted at
0800 570 0011 (calls from Brazil), on business days, from 9a.m to 6p.m (São Paulo, Brazil time) or P.O. BOX 67.600, Zip Code 03162-971
The information herein is believed to be reliable but Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Banco Itaú S.A. may have a position from time to time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed Itaú Securities, accepts responsibility for its contents accordingly. Any US persons receiving this research and wishing to effect transactions in any
security discussed herein should do so only with Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support not issuing personal opinions.